The strong points of the rally which we went into more detail was an absolute momentum move; the flow was a force to be reckoned with and undermined all sides of the Turkish banking system, collapsing like a house of cards.
After 2019 the helplessness of Turkey's Erdogan was quite something. My dear readers, populists and dictators are absolutely incapable of standing aside, and this one is not of any particularly inclined intelligence either. Markets are going to do this for us and leave him aside after we clear covid flows. I personally think a lot of profit taking will be done here in USDTRY, after such a monster move it is favourable for a retest of 6.00 and Turkey can begin to look attractive for the coming years.
There is no such hurry with this move, firstly next week is a panic cycle, followed by 11th Jan which should attract a lot of opportunities to load. Make use of the retracement and profit taking as a basis for our operations, we are miles ahead of the crowd as usual with 6.0 in the crosshairs I am starting to build an allocation as TRY looks cheap to me up here.
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Great analysis always but this time its very very interesting target, wow
stanlxr
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I rmb ur TRY analysis back in 2019 and it turns out u completely nailed it. Congrats! I am waiting to load TRY longs as well given Erdogan seemed to have waken up to the reality and the US sanction was less severe than feared. It seems that there was significant overhead resistance in both usdtry and eurtry as seen in the past few sessions (any pop got quickly smashed down). Could you explain more why you think there will be better levels to load later or in Jan? Many thanks!