Bosphorus_Capital
Short

USDTRY Primary 4 targeting 2.6851

FX:USDTRY   U.S. Dollar/Turkish New Lira
90 0 1
Triple Rejection at 3.07 with massive monthly momentum divergence is the main technical evidence calling for a test of 2.80

Moreover, All movement since January 2015 has been corrective, including the 3 waves up from April             2016.
The c wave of the corrective structure in the light blue box is missing.

I believe this will be a deep retrace to 2.6851 as is typical of wave 4's

The fundamental backdrop is supportive for this move as FED just can't raise with earnings in S&P             dwindling which is recessionary.

Although the jawboning will continue, EM Bonds have seen massive inflows lately, banking on the "lower for longer" theme.

After we complete the correction to 2.6851, the Primary bull market takes over the price to new all time highs.

The Primary 4 correction to 2.6851 should be complete before January 2017.
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