ridethepig
Long

7.80 in the crosshairs..

FOREXCOM:USDTRY   U.S. Dollar / Turkish Lira
=> For those who believe in the bearish Turkey story, yet again we are at significant value areas for USDTRY longs. The 5th wave we mentioned in our previous idea can be seen clearly here and shows how the floodgates for 7.80 are wide open.
=> From a technical perspective the 5th wave target, the first major target is 6.78 (assuming wave 5 is a 1.00 ratio in length of wave 1).
=> Given the nature of this rally so far there is a very large chance this can extend well beyond the initial targets as far as the 2.168 extension at 7.80.
=> It is also worth noting for those following EW that the 5th wave usually marks new highs... confidence in this view will increase above 5.60 so for those wanting a less aggressive entry you can sit tight and watch closely and good luck to those wanting to pull the trigger early for the move of 2019.
=> This is going to be a monstrous move and worth tracking for those interested in watching the EM collapse continue.
Comment: Smells like a big move cooking here.
Comment: We are moving!!! +2% today!!
Comment: 5%!!!
Comment: First targets at 6.1537 in play here today for FED positioning.
Comment: 6.1537 target reached !!!
Comment: Bulls taking 6.1537 for the open will be disastrous for Turkey
Comment: Usual suspects bidding the open ... 6.1537 resistance turning support

Comment: As usual...
Comment: Decent profit taking underway after clearing the 6.1537 target.
hey what is your next target ? 6.78 or pull back?
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Yes @emrelg, leaving the rest running for 6.78 and 7.80
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CRASH
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A) if USD goes before election over 6.85TL ,, they will move or cancel election date!
More realistic scenario is new high levels.
It will bring turkish lira and stability of turkey in troubles.

B) another scenario is, EU/USA will accept, turkish people had a choice and they took erdogan. USD/EUR will drop and turkey will go more stabile

C) erdogan will knock on IMF's door in summer 2018 and they will take the economy part from him, else it will end badly until 2020
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Are you considering fundamental analysis? To me it says (Turkish elections ahead, 31. March 2019) a sharp upward move seems impossible, if it happens, it wont be as big or last long enough. USD wont rise against TRY before elections, they will hold it down. Otherwise Erdogan can not win, so they will do whatever it takes and dollar will fall against turkish lira end of March or latest right after elections (if Erdogan wins). Something to consider imo.
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Completely agree,
There is an inverse head and shoulders.
Or open TRYJPY pair daily chart where it s very obvious
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