4xForecaster

$USD v. $TRY - #elliottwave & Predictive/Forecasting Analysis

FX:USDTRY   U.S. Dollar/Turkish New Lira
a year ago
Friends,

Predictive/Forecasting Model hit an unannounced target at the current price vicinity of 3.06557. I have constructed this DAILY chart to comprise three degrees of Elliott Waves: Cycle, Primary and Intermediate.

In these relative terms, the recent top would likely represent cycle III             of a Period of an Intermediate (5). The relevance of this detailed nomenclature is relative to its internal parts, but also to the probable price action we are about to face.


snapshot


The most important element here is that we are likely arrived at a significant resistance, topping a cycle-degree impulse, and now descending to a probable correction into a Cycle wave IV.


EQUALITY:

Keeping a quasi-equality among Wave II and Wave IV, we are expecting a possible 434 resolution of a correction/impulse completion, first as the aforementioned Cycle Wave IV, and a final push to higher highs as an impulsive Cycle Wave V.


ALTERNATION:

Consideration must be given to Elliott Wave's Rule Of Alternation, wherein Cycle Wave II corrected into a complex 5-3-5 zigzag (more specifically a declining Leading Diagonal, followed by a rising Triple Zigzag, then concludinghte entire correction into a declining Impulse - The overall motion is detailed as "LD-TZ-IMP" over a 434 daily bar span).

Conversely, the alternation in the current Cycle Wave IV correction should occur as a simpler IMP-ZZ-IMP, giving shape to the simpler ZZ prescribed in the chart as the larger PINK zig-zag.


TARGETS - ELLIOTT WAVE & FORECASTING/PREDICTIVE MODEL BASED:

- ELLIOTT WAVE SUPPORTIVE TARGET:

There are two targets in the chart. First, a supportive target defined by expectation of Elliott Wave's rule of correction seeking origination level of a preceding Wave-4 of one lesser degree, hence sought out at Intermediate Wave (4) = 2.62980.

Staying respectful of the aforementioned EQUALITY rule, the projected height of Cycle Wave II is thus used to approximate the termination level of Cycle Wave IV, such that the top of the range anchors at Cycle wave III             = Primary = Intermediate (5).

This does NOT result in any Fibonacci cluster, as the Fibonacci matrix is anchored at Intermediate (2) to Intermediate (5), and fails to offer a cluster at the 0.618 level. This level was relevant at the bottom left of the chart, since it offered the launching base from Cycle II completion to the recent Cycle III             completion.

PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL TARGET:

The Predictive/Forecasting Model here offers a final target, namely:

- TG-Hix = 3.26772 - 14 OCT             2015

This target is a qualitative designation (ie.: TG- Hi/Lo and TG-Hi.Hix), which is associated with reversals rather than retracements. This means that if and once price rallies from the approximate base just defined, we are likely to see significant rejection and a probable roll-over.

Note that the 0.618-Fib level that correlates the two Cycle Wave II and IV can be used as a measure of anticipation, perfectly lining up its infamous 1.414-Fib, which is the value I often seek in an aggressive counter-trend market where reversals tend to occur.


OVERALL:

Look for a probable simpler correction to the levels defined, and an impulsive Cycle Wave completion at the Predictive/Forecasting Model target of 3.26772.

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


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Twitter: @4xForecaster
LinkedIn: David Alcindor
TradingView: www.TradingView.com/u/4xforecaster
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4 months ago
Comment: 20 JUL 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As the $TRY continues to weaken, it remains tethered at the structural tops it had carved over the past since this forecast was released.

At this point, TG-Hix remains a probable target. Also added is a WL at 3.58889. However, an interim decline to the levels initially forecast remains probable:

snapshot


David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
4 months ago
Comment: 20 JUL 2016 - ADDENDUM:

Watch out for this potential interim - albeit limited - decline:

snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
4 months ago
Comment: 03 AUG 2016:

Watch for this possible pattern justifying last month's suspected - albeit limited - decline:

snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
23 days ago
Comment: 17 NOV 2016 - Chart Update: target HIT as defined on OCT 2015 (over a year a go):

snapshot



David Alcindor
CMT Affiliate #227974
- Check #CROWSignalService on Twitter for recent performances
23 days ago
Comment: ADDENDUM: Also from #CROWSignalService - All targets hit, as defined by more recent forecast (SEP 2016):

snapshot


David Alcindor
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
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+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
There are several "Chatrooms" in which I do most of the "brain chatter". These rooms are more like back-stage "ateliers" where I prepare trades in advance. You are welcome to wipe the dust off of the windows and peek in. The glass is rather thick, so I rarely reply to taps on the glass or even shouts from the door. I work very late hours in the ER and I use these moments to collect thoughts, ideas, concepts, and lay it out there in the open.

Following are a few of the rooms where I prepare trading ideas before they become shared on Twitter, Linked-In, Google, Facebook, StockTwits and TradingView communities - So, if you want to have first peek, feel free to stop on by. If I don't reply and it smells like coffee, it's because I might be in the basement, hammering other charts in another "brain chatter" room:


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Feel free to capture and share links - I do apologize ahead for not immediately or rarely replying to inquiries. These are not spaces where I would engage traders into arguments, as I really have no opinion of the underlying market for which the analyses are provided. This is all educational, and if you need real trading advice, seek that of a certified professional - I am a non-certified life-time student of the market. I am the author of several proprietary (i.e.: not for sharing) patterns (Great White, Janus, Euclid) and lesson-based shared methods (EAGLE, AFT), but I do spend most of my time double tasking between broken people and breaking markets.

Best,


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
If you like certain charts, ideas, concepts, then given it a thumbs-up so I know which one to delve into and which one to lay off of. And, if you think these are ideas that can advance the edification of a peer, then I thank you ahead for sharing - I don't make money via memberships. Just trading my own ideas and free-sharing ... Just a better credential, if I may say so.

Cheers to your profitable trades,

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
ANNOUNCEMENT - Another "Chatter Room":


ATHENA - Geometric Methodology Of An Elliott Wave Pattern:
... Letting the reciprocal lines tell you where to hold, stop and go

Here is the latest room I opened - Here too, not much peer to peer chatter. Just free-sharing a new pattern methodology. If you liked the "Geo", then have fun with this one:


ATHENA | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting | 4xForecaster:
- https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#x0ZJVZ9JQjlrtd7Y


Best,


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
roadtogo
4 months ago
update please :)
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17 NOV 2016 - Chart Update: target HIT as defined on OCT 2015 (over a year a go):

snapshot


David Alcindor
CMT Affiliate #227974
- Check #CROWSignalService on Twitter for recent performances
Reply
birolguner 4xForecaster
22 days ago
@4xForecaster, hi david, I see you're very successful in your predictions..

That's why I want to subscribe to your signal service..?


+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO birolguner
22 days ago
Good morning @birolguner - First, thank you for your kind compliment, and thank you for having looked at my recent traders (#CROWSignalService on Twitter, I believe is where I saw your recent following me).

Second, the service is offered over email, until TradingView can host it. To get in, simply email my assistant at admin@KADAInstitute.com. She will send you all the information necessary to join in the private list.

Again, thank you for your kind compliments and for your interest in my predictive analyses and forecasts.

Sincerely,


David Alcindor
Reply
birolguner 4xForecaster
22 days ago
@4xForecaster, david
I am sending this email to admin@KADAInstitute.com
birol@guner.org
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO birolguner
22 days ago
@birolguner - I am keeping an eye out for my assistant. As soon as I receive her go-ahead, I will send you all of the recent and current forecasts.

It covers 35 Forex pairs, in addition to recent forecasts on $AAPL, $TSLA, $WFC, $NKE, $TWTR (a $GOOGL is available as a different product, due to the lengthy research and report), as well as several indices ($US30, $SPX, Nasdaq), and commodities ($XAU, XAG).

Again, thank you for your interest in my analyses and forecasts. Expect to read a lot over this weekend.

Sincerely,

David Alcindor
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birolguner 4xForecaster
22 days ago
@4xForecaster, Thanks david. I am waiting for your mail. best regards... Birol
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aLtinCoCuK
21 days ago
Hi.If all 10 years long uptrend ended what can happen next ? 1.50 level can be seen 3 years later? :) thanx
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO aLtinCoCuK
19 days ago
@aLtinCoCuK,

The forecast I released does not call for an immediate multi-year decline ... There is one more Elliott Wave ("EW") piece of the puzzle expected (Per CROW Code Model).

However, in the gist of traditional EW timing, look for a correction that approximates 0.618 of the impulse to which it reacts.

David
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Sokrat85 4xForecaster
18 days ago
@4xForecaster, Everyone expects an appropriate level to get you dollars again. Expect a full hit for a new chart for the reception place you've been waiting :))
Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sokrat85
18 days ago
Hello, @Sokrat85 - I am not sure I understand your comment. Care to clarify?

Thank you,

David
Reply
Sokrat85 4xForecaster
18 days ago
@4xForecaster, I have TL in my account. Where is the appropriate region to receive $
Thank you
Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sokrat85
18 days ago
@Sokrat85,

Not sure I understand:

1 - TL?

2 - ... appropriate region to receive $?

David
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