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AlpacaBlack
Mar 11, 2024 9:53 AM

Mar. 2024, TRY out of core shorts. 

U.S. Dollar/Turkish New LiraFXCM

Description

Decades of shorts are over imo.
Geo setups are very interesting from my point of view, regarding this region.
CU ltr.

All currencies appearing in this post are fictitious.
Any resemblance to real currencies, existing or dead, is purely coincidental.

Comment

Comments
MinimumWagerLvl1
any update possible? Is it goinh back to 24 or up to 36?
AlpacaBlack
@MinimumWagerLvl1, The main problem interest rates. At current stage if interest rates down, then TRY up.
MinimumWagerLvl1
@AlpacaBlack, Tomorrow they will tell the new rates. What happens if they keep it same or give a higher rate?
AlpacaBlack
@MinimumWagerLvl1,

weekly looking as continuation, but this is weekly. If inflation step down this will help TRY a lot. Central bank acting always with lag.
MinimumWagerLvl1
omg!!! all of my plans are cancelled if this is the situation. I expected to see 32 level is the top for a big short-term correction for the last 2 years :( I sold at 32 and waiting to buy the correction back to 28. but I will be in a huge loss :(
AlpacaBlack
@MinimumWagerLvl1, if the position is small in relation to the margin, then it may be much more profitable to collect the swap between the interest rate difference.
MinimumWagerLvl1
@AlpacaBlack this is too technical for me. I used the chatgpt to understand you but I couldn't 😂 I am holding it as money it's not margin. it's just spot. I feel like I sold it earlier than I should.
AlpacaBlack
@MinimumWagerLvl1, I mean that if you sold usd against try and place that try on a deposit with interest rates at 50 pct it is much more profitable to stay in TRY currency at this current stage after such long term devaluation. Forex swaps works in the same way, good broker pay you this interest rates difference while you holding position via swap points... Deposits in TRY 50 pct / in USD 6 for example... every day you must receive difference in case of short usd / long try position.
MinimumWagerLvl1
@AlpacaBlack okay I tried to understand you. please correct me if I am wrong. you are saying staying at deposit with interest is profitable on the long run. devaluation will take a long time to 42 levels.
AlpacaBlack
@MinimumWagerLvl1, Yes, that is right.
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