The recent strong move of the USD vs the TRY has turned into a frenzy and a parabolic move. We are now at extremes and soon, for the adventurous, going Long TRY will give nice profits. The case of USDTRY is a very interesting one because it also affects the European Banking sector and equity markets overall. Some banks are quite exposed in Turkish assets and their stocks' drop is creating opportunities...
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It looks like we have a top for Wave 3 and this is what I expected when I mentioned the parabolic move and the frenzy that emerged for this pair. So if we indeed saw Wave 3 at $7 now we are entering in a complex and messy period of Wave 4. Why complex and messy? Because the move was parabolic (very strong) and therefore Wave 4 will be a difficult one and could last for several weeks. Once it ends it will give its place to a new opportunity that will lead the USD to much higher levels as to TRY.
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We are still in the Reversal process. I still wait for prices between 5.50 to 5 and then a new move UP will start for the USD, a move that will be quite strong.
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Since the day I mentioned that a Reversal was coming, the USD came down and then up and smoothly down again. This move is considered as corrective, a possible a-b-c down which is still under way. Once it end, a strong thrust up will follow which will bring the USD to levels probably higher than 8
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I am entering a Trade on USD/TRY. Long USD This is the 1st BUY and a 2nd will follow above 5.50-5.60 The Target is mentioned at my blog winstox.webnode.com/ and I will also post there any possible changes on the trades.
you sAy reversAl is coming in your heAding yet neither your graph nor your explanAtion mentions reversAl or any correction. you need to be cleAr at whAt you meAn..
winstox
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@TarikCandar, the graph and my comments are aligned. We are in parabolic move and this will not hold. Therefore SOON we will see a reversal (a reversal is coming). As I wrote "we are now at extremes.."
My comment was an alarm for those who are positioned against the Turkish Lira and for those who were attracted by all the articles against the Turkish economy.
When the parabolic move ends, I will Update the chart.
etherique
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we have the same analysis , it is forming a messy WXY or Z combo correction.
it would be nice to see your entire EW analysis.