I have been - as probably everybody else - keeping a close eye on oil (WTI Crude) and after quite sometime this is the first I see the P&F close to break the major Bearish Resistance Line, as a reference that line started when oil was 105 - 107 and hasn't been even close to threatened since, basically almost 2 years on this trend down.
Now I can see the price action hovering around the line. On the daily candlesticks, using wave analysis, we are possibly forming a C wave at this point on an expanding flat or we actually do have an expanding ending diagonal (which are very rare) and subwave 4 of that diagonal is getting formed. If the latter holds, it would mean that the last wave to complete the pattern will put us around $20.
Two targets for me, $50 based on the P&F targets (first one), second one is around $60 which is where wave 4 on my daily chart ends. But I have a clear invalidation point of my analysis at $39.25, where the P&F creates a double bottom. If that happens, I will reassess.
Trade closed manually
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My P&F reached invalidation, the double bottom got broken and I decided to get out and reassess. The short side is gaining momentum with yesterday news, but as news go they might mean nothing. Next week we should be more confident of what is happening and see if this price drops. If it does, the case for being on an ending expanding diagonal in the weekly frame gets much stronger, making this market probably going to the $20 level. I will try to add my wave count and the P&F to this under comments.
Comments
rod.botovchenco
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Lots of labels, this is a weekly chart and we have two scenarios that can play out. We are either on an expanding flat and currently on C wave, if that is the case we are in the motive sub-waves possibly forming sub-wave ii right now (in blue box). Or, we are in a ending expanding diagonal (which are rare), and sub-wave v of wave 5 is starting to form. If that is the case, we can look at that $20 level before correcting. I did open a quick short position but will keep a tight S/L, if the first scenario plays out then we should see bullish movement coming in at around the $32 level. If we are indeed on the second scenario, we will drop.
Lots of labels, this is a weekly chart and we have two scenarios that can play out. We are either on an expanding flat and currently on C wave, if that is the case we are in the motive sub-waves possibly forming sub-wave ii right now (in blue box). Or, we are in a ending expanding diagonal (which are rare), and sub-wave v of wave 5 is starting to form. If that is the case, we can look at that $20 level before correcting. I did open a quick short position but will keep a tight S/L, if the first scenario plays out then we should see bullish movement coming in at around the $32 level. If we are indeed on the second scenario, we will drop.