The rand dipped below the R.14 66 mark early in the European session today pre eurozone data and ECB La Garde's speech, swiftly finding institutional buyers and a strong reversal at the reached range level. Currently, the price is challenging the R.14 70 level, likely breaking this level during the American session and bouncing off around the R.14 77/80 region today. (possibly even further) The 4 H graph illustrates a bounce, with a divergence on momentum indicators to confirm and support the idea.
In my estimation, the rand will likely continue this trend range R.14-50 to R.15-00 until the end of this year. Caution should be exercised going into the new year as we may see the rand break below its trading range briefly before the Feb budget speech and likely a Moody's downgrade.
@lentus, haha Lentus, call it just a guess on my part. Judging by how quickly the price reversed once hitting R.14.60 I'm assuming it could have been an order/orders executed or perhaps profit-taking? :)
My gut tells me we on our way back towards R.15-00... What do you think?
lentus
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@DaleWesleyFly, I'm probably the wrong guy to ask due to extreme level of my conviction. I think SA -> Zimbabwe. Long-term. My first target is 20 actually.
lentus
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@DaleWesleyFly, short-term once we're gonna get some global risk-off we're going to fly. and then it's February and the wonderful upcoming budget + Moody's. By the way, there might be a downside surprise from S&P Global rating of SA tonite after USA close.