Here is a good Risk Reward Trade. I am looking at a Wolfe Wave/Geo Wave by @4xForecaster . Divergence on all the Time frames. This educational . Please trade your own Rules and Trade what you see.
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As of now i see a Correction and looks like we have Lift off .
Hey John, I see we have moved below the major upward trendline. How far do you see USD/ZAR dropping?
johnmad
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@GustavFourie96, Hello Sir , i Have a Fib ccluster at 13,533 area and there is a lot of Divergence on most Time Frames , for now i am waiting for a pop above the lowest 4 hr trend line to take action .
Goose96
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Amazing analysis, I remember when you posted this back in 2021! Played out exactly like you predicted
GustavFourie96
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Hey John thanks for this idea. I would just like to know why you don't use a log scale with this longer term idea?
When I plot this 2011 trendline on a log scale it has been broken, significantly.
I am a South African myself and I'm not oblivious to the weak local economic fundamentals that our economy is struggling to overcome. However, judging by the current rise in industrial- and precious metal prices, SA's current trade surplus of R52.77 billion and of course the continued loose monetary policy by the FED I won't be surprised if we drop close to 13.18.
GustavFourie96
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@GustavFourie96, The pair is also holding onto rates below the major 200-week MA which is rand positive. The last time the pair maintained rates below this MA was in 2017 and 2018 during the rand's Ramaphoria run.
nicojullian
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@GustavFourie96 so, what it's your final conclusion. Maybe the USD can go up a little and go back again
johnmad
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@nicojullian, I as of now i still think that the USD/DXY can drop to 89,8 area But after that my sights are fixed on 94.00
johnmad
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@GustavFourie96, Thank you so much for your comments and yes as you can see i marked an Invalidation Price Line , i am still thinking that Price can drop to 13.20 area but i am so alert on taking a buy buy will monitor Prce also based on the DXY performance .I also do not follow the economical side of things and base all my insights on Technicals , i have traded set Harmonic and self discovered Patterns which has proved to be very accurate even on the 1 Min and Tick Charts where we Trade CL Futures .
Your 13.18 is really a good Price Correction Area , as of the lower Time Frames there is another Wolfe Wave Present that could send Price a bit Higher and confuse the Market to ge Traders to Buy and as usual just to take out all the Stop Losses .
GustavFourie96
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@johnmad, Cool thanks John. There is also some degree of bullish divergence on the daily and weekly RSI which I'm keeping my eye on.
JoziSniper
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Great work John. I have the same bias. If anything it will still rally and reject around 13.88 but yes I'm 100% with this idea