Rand - likely chance of reversal (1hr-4hr idea).
The Rand is currently overvalued versus the dollar below R13. Market analysts predicted a spread of R12.5-R14 for the USDZAR, making this a good time to enter the market although the general trend has been falling. The NFP of America has pushed the unit below what I believe its correct value should be, so a small upward correction is very likely, especially when considering the recent history within the trend.
Motivation
1. Overvalued rand strength after bad NFP report leads to a small upward correction.
2. History shows multiple of these small positive rallies within the trend.
3. Stochastic signal suggests buying
4. Some gains can be made before other event risks this week (12:30 UTC).
5. Early signs of reversal on support zone (12.80).
Risks
1. USDZAR is between negative trend lines in a bear market after a head-and-shoulders.
2. Multiple risk events occuring this week
Risk response
1. Immediate upward momentum is expected, so wait for the unit to open and confirm, then set a small SL.
2. Once in the green, set up a trailing SL of 750 pips to allow some leeway for further gains. Safe TP is 12.90, but adjust according to momentum.
Stay tuned for updates.
Motivation
1. Overvalued rand strength after bad NFP report leads to a small upward correction.
2. History shows multiple of these small positive rallies within the trend.
3. Stochastic signal suggests buying
4. Some gains can be made before other event risks this week (12:30 UTC).
5. Early signs of reversal on support zone (12.80).
Risks
1. USDZAR is between negative trend lines in a bear market after a head-and-shoulders.
2. Multiple risk events occuring this week
Risk response
1. Immediate upward momentum is expected, so wait for the unit to open and confirm, then set a small SL.
2. Once in the green, set up a trailing SL of 750 pips to allow some leeway for further gains. Safe TP is 12.90, but adjust according to momentum.
Stay tuned for updates.
Trade active:
Opened trade after initial uptrend. Leverage 10X.
Trade closed manually:
Small profit closed at 12.84. Another reversal will occur soon.