I expect a swing of about 80-100c all the way up to R15.50+- per dollar, I have personally opened a big long position, expecting the ZAR to weaken in the short term within a week to a few weeks (less than a month or about a month) to 15.50+-.
Stop Loss is around 14.40+-, take profit is 15.55, the entry price is 14.55
USA interest rate tightening, alongside the war in Ukraine likely to not worsen from this stage as there are already peace talks underway and Russia is taking heavy losses (beyond the propaganda now), I expect the war to come to an end in 2-10 months
I was stop loss-ed (with small profit) in my S&P 500 index fund Long position, so its another sign if the USA stock market is struggling to go higher that a change in direction is likely.
I have a feeling...
Trade closed: stop reached
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I stopped out at 15.54, sorry, lol, I am risking too much to handle a longer downtrend, I am not fully certain this idea of mine will play out as it is, but still possible
i admire your ability to see the flip side of your own viewpoint. that is a valuable skill that we could all use
ricomister
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@dgoldiner, I personally feel many people say this or that, and some of these things said have real weight, but FOREX sometimes disregards most of what they say, and just takes its own direction, so I just sort-of randomly jump in..., I do consider some factors, but really don't consider all of them when I make my decisions, and I believe most of these factors are overrated a bit anyway.
and so far that has not been a bad decision at all...
juan0312
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More rand strength on the cards. Rand mainly influenced by dollar. DXY, being overbought, suggests more rand strength over short term. Looks like R14.06 is in the making, but possible support at R14.35 to R14.40 - sorry to break this to you. Hope your stoploss doesn't get hit.
ricomister
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@juan0312, probably, but most of my decisions, the random factor plays a big part, its because I guess the volatility of FOREX...
And yes, my stop loss was hit, but I lost very little, I guess, having a position size of R1.8 million was too much for me lol, so I could only handle USDZAR going 1 cent in the red against me..., I took my R750-R1500 loss, I am feeling a bit bad now that it is going in my direction, but its fine... more opportunities will present itself, so long I just stick to strong risk management, I will always be on top of thing.
juan0312
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@ricomister, believe me, I've paid so much "school fees" that its not funny, but the good thing about that is that it motivates me not to give up on the dream to become a successful trader. I mean the money is already spent on learning, why give up now? Discipline, patience and risk management are most important.
ricomister
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@juan0312, yes, in the end, you might realize its better to actively/passively invest or very rarely trade than to become a active trader, only a certain percentage of people posses the mental capacity to be active traders...
Nothing wrong in taking the slower route, I am out of USDZAR for now, I think the floods and Eskom Load Shedding is causing the rand to weaken, alongside potentially other factors, this is the stuff I would put under the "random" factor, the x-factor, the black swan... events.
if I had sized my position correctly like I usually do, 35000/30000 USD, I would still be in, but it is what it is...
The good news is, its most of the times a scale, now the US stock market is dipping, if it dips enough, I'll jump back in at a lower price than what I entered previously (in that position my stop loss was hit but I walked away with 1100+- USD profit), so just wait... keep a watchful eye, this year oppurtinities might arise, and how one should approach these opportunities is not maybe all in but systematically buy, because we might be heading for a world-wide longer downtrend market (1-2 years solid downtrend, slow downtrend)