Please see my related post linked below as you proceed with this analysis. Recently, from a fundamentals standpoint, the state of the economy at South Africa has recently come into question ahead of May's election. Today, a severe power cut (Escom) has been put in place, which has added more uncertainty to the woes of the already troubled rand. Three things to note: 1. Price has respected trendline (in red) on now three points. 2. Watch for how price responds to the 200 MA. It is currently kissing the 200MA. If we see a bull run through, I anticipate more bullish movement. 3. Price respected a key ZONE 61.8% fib level from higher time frame, and can continue to be contained within what may be an ascending channel. Keep watch on fundamentals. As we near elections we could see more instability with this pair. This analysis is for education and demonstration purposes. Trade at your own risk.
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As noted in point #2 above, price is respecting the 200 MA. We could see an additional push to the downside before price makes a move up.
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Price pushed past the 200 MA. I am looking for move movement to the upside long term as noted. Note there will be pullbacks.
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I see a bit of indecision at the price point we are currently. Also Price has surpassed 61.8% fib level from latest swing high to swing low point. Currently watching price action; you may want to take some profit, and as always protect your profits. I do believe long term we will see higher, but it may take some time.
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On Wednesday, 2-20-2019 there will be a budget speech. it's expected that it may be bleak, in terms of the ecoomic outlook. This pair has pulled back to the trendline as shown below. Watch for price action. If the rand continues to deteriorate and the outlook deteriorates, we could see the bulls take off.
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nice bullish impulse after retest. News at 6 am cst related to the south africa budget. We can't presume on the market so be sure to protect your profits.