Two months ago both USO and Crude Oil appeared to be forming Horizontal Triangles from the February bottom. The pattern was subsequently validated. Now the possibility of a Horizontal Triangle has reappeared. If USO holds below 11.79 it will remain valid. A break over 11.79 will invalidate the pattern and opens the door to reach at least 12.45.
MACD lines are bullish implying at least one or two more up days.
The Weekly Crude Oil futures has a different pattern and needs to rally at least .14 points for completion.
Watch USO and Crude Oil,a great shorting opportunity could be just days away.
Mark
Comments
brchart
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Today we broke our 11.79 high at the top of "C." Bummer...triangle theory is void.
USO is probably going above 12.45. Hold off on doing anything with USO unless it gets above 12.45. I will do Fibonacci analysis to find the next resistance zone.
The is a very good trade set up with the SPX, it may start to turn down after the FOMC announcement on 12/14/16. I will have a post on this soon.
USO retraced some today.... just broke the 38 fib. Hopefully it holds the 50 fib and goes south from there. Retrace wave looks to be counter in structure at this point. Triangle idea is still good. Thanks.
Agreed. Daily MACD is still bullish so hoping hourly MACD fails at the zero line(now) and we get a dn candle tomorrow to get us closer to crossing. Maybe someone won't play nicely at the OPEC mtg in Vienna on Saturday and that will be the impetus we need to get moving dn hard.
brchart
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Hi Mark - I'm new to TradingView. I've been tracking USO for some time with the same thoughts in mind as you....a triangle. Many on this site suggest a running flat, but I do not agree as the "D" wave above is abc. I believe this wave would need to be impulsive for the larger degree C wave in a running flat. So, I agree with you on it being "D" and therefore a triangle.
As crude futures and USO track similarly I am watching CL1 also. I see an ascending triangle on this chart. Therefore, I went short at the trend line and believe we have an "E" wave down in both charts. E waves can end anywhere, so hoping for the lower trend line. Then I would think up for the larger C Wave for both cl1 and USO. Your thoughts??
I'd post the CL1 chart but unsure how to do so yet..sorry.
The alternate count for what I have labeled as "D" would be a truncated "C" of a "A-B-C" down from the June high. If this count were in effect it would be very bullish.
Since I posted the USO chart price has marginally punched above the declining upper trend line. This is evidence that the supposed wave "E" has topped and in an area it should have topped.
The MACD lines were bullish and now look like they are rolling over - we may see a bearish cross over in a few days.
The latest Commitment of Traders report still shows Commercials with close to their highest net short position in over a year. You want to follow the Commercials, they have the most money and are the most informed.
In 2016 CL/USO has been roughly trading in line with US stocks. Today 12/7/16 US stocks had a big up day. SPX +1.32% USO -1.77.
If stocks are moving up because the economy is improving why didn't CL/USO go up? Either Oil or stocks are lying. I suspect stocks are lying because Copper as measured by ETF "JJC"
was down 1.01%. Unless the 12/5/16 USO high of 11.63 is breached, a post Triangle trust down is underway. Minimum downside target is February bottom at 7.67.