After hitting my first downside target (38.2% retrace of the move up from $37.00) prices continued to work their way lower. They ultimately touched the 200sma, the 50% retrace level and came within 1 penny of touching the old breakout higher at 38.20. Prices violently reversed and momentum promptly shifted to the bulls as word that both the Sec. of State and then shortly after that, President Obama would be speaking on the recent concerns coming out of the Middle East. Mr. Kerry's comments garnered the most attention as prices violently spiked higher and then quickly retreated once he was done. It would seem the geo-political 'risk' of being too short was just too great as the swing had many hallmarks of a 'stop run' in that it both failed to break the previous highs (38.84) nor did it change our 'trending' indicator (that being the relationship between the 13ema and the 30sma) which was/is still pointing down. Put it all together and while we are still pointing lower, one can't help but feel we are closer to the end of this move, not the beginning. While I am not totally convinced we have 'bottomed' just yet, I have included a potential 'Bot' long setup on this chart to give you an idea of where I am looking for this market to go once it does find buying support.