Finally time for bullish oil? $USO to $120 then $300+

Jun 19

People have been calling for the oil bull market to begin for the past two years and the trade largely hasn't worked as we've gone sideways to down. However, based on the chart, it looks like we're finally ready for a run.

This would also line up with my bearish equity thesis.

Oil looks to have broken out of an inverse head and shoulders pattern and althought it's a diagonal pattern which are less reliable, the indicators that I have seem to support the narrative.

I think there's a possibility that we could see a 4x move over the next year or so.

Let's see how it plays out.

Jul 24

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Bought
30 USO 10/18/2024 100.00 C
50 USO 08/16/2024 85.00 C

Aug 1

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Sold 100% of my position
30 USO 10/18/2024 100.00 C +110%
50 USO 08/16/2024 85.00 C +145%

Could still go higher but gotta take profits in this market as things can change quickly.

Aug 1

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The reason I exited even with a long-term bullish view is because I think that before the run starts, price could crash to $66 or so.

So want to avoid that.

Essentially my thesis is we're going to have a covid-style risk off event in the next month or two and all assets will fall. Not sure what will cause it, whether it's geopolitical, some policy error from the fed or another central bank, something going wrong in bond market, something that happens with banks, but it's coming. I can see it on multiple charts and it's just a matter of when. Stocks, crypto, oil, gold, silver, etc., will all fall with the market, hence why I've been stacking put positions and not holding calls for too long.

Aug 12

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Chart shaping up, but still staying out of this trade for now due to the reasons stated above. Could be wrong, but now that everyone is calling for $100 oil, I like the long side a lot less. It looks overextended on low timeframes, but there's still lots of room to move on higher timeframes.

The next few weeks should setup the move for the coming months.

Sep 6

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Welp glad I got out of the long trade when I did. The sentiment told the story. Still think we get $66 before higher.

Sep 10

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Alright $66 tagged this morning. Think this is likely a buying opportunity. We'll have to see how price action shapes up the rest of the week.

Sep 11

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Got the bounce we were looking for.