The USO may have just completed an Elliott Wave Horizontal Triangle. If so, a post triangle thrust down may have just begun. Usually a post triangle thrust is equal to the length of the widest part of the triangle, which in this case is 4.78. If you subtract 4.78 from the supposed end of the triangle wave "E" at 10.61 it targets 5.83, it could reach this target by late October or early November.
The recent Commitment of Traders Report for WTI Crude Oil futures shows that Commercials - they have the largest positions, are still at a relatively high net short position. Commercials had their highest net short position in late May just before the WTI Crude Oil and USO high of the year.
A sharp decline in USO to a new low for the year could be a sign of a coming global economic slowdown similar to what happened in 2008. If this were to happen it would have a bearish effect on stock markets worldwide.
Mark
Comments
DesrosiersDataAlgo
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i think that uso will do one last leg then fall like mad! expiration in oil contracts are 18/10 2016 ! So 2 days before ( as usual) or the day after that; should fall nicely i average 11.35 in USO selling now :) was a buyer 2-3 weeks till 11 then inverted for selling . good luck guys
markrivest
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Hi Thanks for the comment
Oil/USO is very close to a down turn if it has not already started to go down. I will be watching what happens as Crude Oil contracts get near expiration.
Mark
Trance-Man
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Let's talk more about this, what does evryone think about the oil talks going on, and planned, no deals, just talk, manipulation, very interested. I shorted RIG bigtime... anyone have thoughts on RIG chart, where will it drop to and when?
markrivest
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Hi Trance-Man
Thanks for commenting about my post. I use mostly Technical analysis and was unaware of any oil talks when I made the post.
Rather than be concerned about what could happen at the oil talks, follow the money. In this case its the Commitment of Traders report for Crude Oil.
The Commercials are the really big money and they are heavily short WTI Crude Oil Futures.
I will research RIG and post my opinion.
Mark
Trance-Man
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OK on RIG, yes understand all you said, correct. I am TA as well. Yes please do let me know on RIG, and you are very welcome sir.