chartwatchers
Long

OIL - bull flag again

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
2464 32 47
We are printing a bull flag again. I'M waiting for a breakout to 45$-46$ soon.

I see again people here at tradingview that shorting oil             .
Guys we are in a new bull market ! You cannot short this market in this year.
You might be lucky and pick some money from the bull but most of the cases you will lose.

At least you who are reading me please don't short it. Now everybody will realize that the 27 $ oil             is history. All the big funds will start to take position in oil             and oil             shares.
If we reach the top of this intermediate cycle after few weeks we just close our position and go for long later. But I won't short this market...
It will be impossible to catch the top of a starting bull market's first phase. I studied it hard in 2009 May.

The maximum pullback we can have in this flag is 42 that is the breakout level and the 200 EMA at the daily chart .
If someone want to go long that's the last entry point. AFter this we are running out of time and will be more and more dangerous to short - the chance of a correction is higher from week to week.

I'M holding every position in the Energy trade. I will post there if I jump out.
Comment: The more time we spend here between 44.5 and 42.5 the bigger the chance that it's a bull flag.
More and more people will see the flag pattern...
Comment: We are attacking the upper leg of the flag.
We turned exactly where I predicted.
Comment: Voulme is supporting the flag.
snapshot
Comment: Can we break out finally?
Comment: Flag is broken.
Want to see short coverings now at the purple and red lines...
snapshot
Comment: Purple line bears destroyed.
Comment: ... and here is the breakout after market close with the stoprun.
Red line bears destroyed.
Never short the oil bull !
sure
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Are you thinking that 41,30/40 will be possible as a pullback? Thanks in advance
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I think 42 is the maximum
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Totally agree with your analysis, expecting it to touch 50 within a week/ 2 weeks max, its a 3rd wave so shorting it is financial suicide, just buy on pullbacks if you aren't in the trade already, 3rd wave is usually longest wave, bearing in mind wave 1 was long (27-41) I'm expecting wave 3 to go longer (36-52) , as wave 2 was a shallow pullback i think we will see wave 4 retrace 61.8 to around 42/43 before a lovely 5th wave to 60...
+1 Reply
Next week will give the answer if we can go to 60 or not in the next 3 weeks...
60 is a liitle bit too much for me but who knows? As many are shorting it - not impossible.
Just to let you know : some of the money we make is the top picker's (short traders' money) money...
+1 Reply
KayJay Trendhopper
Totally agree with you brother
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Josef2016 Trendhopper
(27-41),(36-52) means days or price?
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Trendhopper Josef2016
price...wave 3 should be longer than 1...wave one moved 14 dollars, so wave 3 should get to at least about 52 in my opinion (16 dollars)
+1 Reply
Josef2016 Trendhopper
Thanks
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I ABSOLUTELY agree Thank YOU!!! Anyone going short on oil in the current market is taking a HUGE risk!! This is gonna be a STONG bull
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Yes, DO NOT short oil.
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are you studying global news with your analysis at all or just basing off of chart predictability? I think people are shorting oil right now due to the once again failed production freeze rescheduled for next month (dangling carrot) ,but it did hold above 40 because of a slight dip in supply reserves - due really only to the 3 day strike that actually ended 3 or 4 days ago. So as I would understand that, as soon as the supply glut is re-established, that would drive the price back down. However...the only thing I can see supporting the price of oil would be the stronger dollar we have currently as it poked its head above 95,encouraging some additional risk investments, any thoughts?
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rjsulliv Teflonjohn907
A stronger dollar drives oil prices down?!?!?! am i confused???
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stronger dollar would leave me to believe it would support the price of oil actually...stronger dollar seems to give an boost in riskier markets. so iv noticed in a few eras
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Sure, but I think 41.7 will be the possible pullback
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Agreed.
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chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
It's on the chart also.
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Nice analysis :)
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Thanks! :)
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Will they dare to break it before FED?...
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chartwatchers PRO captain_smollett
Possible. But FED will have no effect on oil.
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Totally Agree abd Thancks for nice analys.I think i can see even that it can be round 40$ before rally to 47-50$.What you think?
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42 $ is a strong resistance. We are clearly in the bull flag at 4hrs chart. The last bull flag broke down instead of breaking up because of the saudi trick.
This time I don't think it can break down.
Bull flags are breaking up in the 90% of the cases. I think the maximum we are able to come back is 42$ - the 200 EMA on the daily chart.
+2 Reply
Josef2016 chartwatchers
If 42$ is maximum consolidation,then impuls will come soon,maybe even in April?Thanks.
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The flag won't last for weeks. It should break out this week.
+1 Reply
Josef2016 chartwatchers
Thanks bro.
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I think this baby is about to blow, just touched 61.8 retracement at 42.6, possible three drives pattern on 2 hr chart and three green soldiers on 2 hr chart....
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Yes, we can! =) But it will be a breakout based on USD weackness today, not sure if I want to trust it really...
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Could it still be in a bull flag?
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We broke out.
press play on the first picture
+4 Reply
... and here is the breakout after market close with the stoprun.
Red line bears destroyed.
Never short the oil bull !
+6 Reply
Chartwatchers....you are very good at "Flat" I presume. Good analysis on this one! Is this idea based purely on technical or w/ certain fundamental as well? And seemed a bit contrarian too...lol.
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