Let's see if I'm reading the chart correctly. If there's no deal this weekend, downtrend shall being in 2 steps. Storage full and low demand based on current world situation. Perhaps i'm just being hopeful and see what I want to see.
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Saudi Armco to announce its official selling prices for May shipments this Sunday. Monday Meeting for OPEC+, BUT is USA willing to cut output of shale oil? This could be a deal breaker and prices may drop sharply to previous lows....
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OPEC and Russia have postponed a Monday meeting to discuss oil output cuts until April 9, OPEC sources said, due to a Saudi-Russia dispute over who is to blame for plunging crude prices.
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The International Energy Agency warned on Friday that a cut of 10 million bpd would not be enough to counter the huge fall in oil demand. Even with such a cut, inventories would increase by 15 million bpd in the second quarter.
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Saudi Aramco delayed the release of its key monthly oil pricing list until later this week as the kingdom trades barbs with Russia about the OPEC+ meeting aimed at ending the collapse in oil prices. A new date for the announcement of Aramco’s official selling prices for May is not yet set, and the release could be pushed to Tuesday or Thursday
@Varonos, at this point it’s almost a guessing game lol it’s politics, production, inventories and demand, not just looking at support and resistance
farmerisland
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So in your chart analysis, where do you see Monday's/next week price action going, if A) a cut deal is made over the weekend (but realistically that doesn't fix the demand (or extreme surplus issue)... Or B) no deal is made and positive rumors negated? Price level targets based on chart analysis?.. I like to get multiple POVs
MasiView
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@farmerisland, I believe Armco’s May price will not be increased and as you mentioned yourself, even cutting production will not effect the price because of the surplus. I believe stock rallied on hope, but based on the current information out there, on Monday crude should open around $26-$27 and reset lows of ~$20 during next week....or I could totally be wrong :)
TTGold
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@masifaiz,
I think this is the most probable outcome is for price to drop to below $20. Cutting production sharply, if possible, will not save oil. Oil may jump to $32-34 range but will fall to $16.7 and lower.