Justin
Long

Oil weekly chart

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
321 40 5
As we can see from the chart that we are about to have a major breakout out the STL             for the bears to come in, with the price projection we can see oil             get to 60.00 level if all things are equal then 50.00 level is not far fetch if the OPEC meeting goes south. Now we can see that oil             has broken 50 level and heading to 45.00/43.10 level where we would see a short pull back and then price head to 39.00 level which would be a level to expect the bulls to come in,
What STL means please?
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STL means= Support Trend Line
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dp Justin
Thanks. My analysis is different, but gives close target 78.00: https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/wti-weakly-and-2h-not-as-ugly-as-brent-though-1593499
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yes it is different but the same view
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though that my signal on the analysis hit sl but am still in on it long term for the key S&R level is breached, so we wait for the breakout to be complete and confirmed then go short dip.
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dp Justin
Break-down includes bull-traps, so don't worry :)
In a meantime,
https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/weekly-wti-bat-and-gartley-favor-bearish-scenario-1788780
https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/descending-wti-triangle-in-downtrend-expected-to-be-theoretically-broken-down-on-07-10-2014-1771406

Triangle has been broken once up = bull trap. Now
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the ride is so lovely , we should watch close 83.73 level for that is a key support possible of pull back
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dp Justin
It seems to me that despite technical resistance, it can go lower to 78:

snapshot
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the rocking is still heading shout
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dp Justin
I'm afraid that divergence is forming 2H plus barely below down-sloping trend-line plus oversold all scales -- oh shit, we might get short-term reversal soon ...
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before any thing would happen on this move we must see 80.00 that is where psychology would play it roll among traders and possible of a short pull back for the momentum for the move to 74.00 level
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dp Justin
Thanks Bro... UKOIL helps a bit -- on parabolic fall
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now psychology would play its role 80.00 hit and short pull back may set in
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dp Justin
4h RSI14 diverence
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get ready for another free fall
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dp Justin
Thanks. Did you read this?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/13/us-shaleoil-energy-breakeven-idUSKCN0I21GG20141013

"Some 98 percent of crude oil and condensates from the United States have a breakeven price of below $80 and 82 percent had a breakeven price of $60 or lower," she told Reuters in an interview on the sidelines of the launch of the Africa Energy Outlook publication.
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oil heading to 74.00 level
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dp Justin
I accompanied with quite a volatility.
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yes and still have more to give out
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I just published https://www.tradingview.com/e/cTELQtU4/
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Patience is key to rocking FX, this analysis is not yet ready to stop pouring out the green pips next stop after the 74.00 hit today we would be heading to 50.00 level
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the small symmetry triangle tp price protection at 72.00 would hit soon if not today or tomorrow, i love Oil moves
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dp Justin
In other words, are you still holding WTI through 74.00 with the target 72.00? What a move!
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like i said patience is key to FX i would only get out when i see a key level with a key reversal candle sitting on it then i would wait for it to confirm to be sure that it would hold before exiting the sell for oil would only have any change on 22nd of this month after the OPEC meeting that is if they could help to stop the down move, the meet may even help push the price faster down because US would us politics to follow the meeting in other for it to go there side so that day is a key day to watch oil move
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dp Justin
Thanks mate for insight, appreciate it.

I see now 4h AB=CD targeting 72.84.
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dp Justin
Another note -- 72.29 is 150 fibonacci D-point of the modified Bull Butterfly, so kinda focusing different targets in one spot.
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dp Justin
What bothers me -- is RSI divergence on 1D:
snapshot
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Hmm i love this oil for now am sure that 50 level is not Far fetch if the thursday result falls just as the yesterday meeting watchout for the next spike
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dp Justin
Yes, it is. It looks like divergency didn't materialize and, most importantly, Vlad wont be left alone that easy.
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Fib 50 has been broken both for WTI and Brent, the next 61.8 is at 64 and 72 correspondingly. OPEC has been failed upfront.
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we can see that oil still in trouble and the big movers are not yet ready for the helping in solving the problem well for now price is heading 60 and 50 level is now even more sure to hit, on my chart above we can see that the first symmetry triangle projection for 72.00 has being achieved, Now 67.16 level is half move of the big symmetry triangle profit projection also we should not forget that 60 .00 is a strong support which would give possible a pull back before the free fall to 50 level
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Justin, take a look at https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/good-tuesday-to-all-readers-wti-outlook-my-roadmap-on-the-30-mn-charttarget-1-7325-2665284
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DP i saw it but what you should be asking or looking for is the momentum for that and i cant find any but though we all know that every spike down always has a 50% retracement so from what i see 71.00 level may be the end for the bulls pull back and the bears would come in after some investors have taking out their profit, so that 71.00 level may be that selling point for the move to 60/ 50 level . i believe that the bearish ABCD may fail or even the XABCD also may fail, they would not complete because oil lacks the bullish momentum to push up so be careful
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dp Justin
Sure, being careful is the must.

Looking at 2008 drop event one sees the furious pull-back, but we didn't have any as yet. I think that we need one for bears to get recharged for lower low.

It looks to me that the whole pull-back consists of sequence of ABCD's having as a mid-point consolidation in the form of pennant or the likes,

Another point is that Vlad wont be left alone that easy, and that could be the factor for manipulated push down too.
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price is heading to 60.00 level
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dp Justin
snapshot
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now 60 level is achieved next move is 50 level but before price would hit that level we should not overlook that investors are not happy that oil price is down so any little good news would spike a big pull back so we are in the area where we have to be careful and protect the profit at all time, then before the 50 level hit we should expect a bounce off at 54.41 /53.52 levels for short pull back, is also possible that it may fail and 50 level would hit for there still no solution to the oil problem even what we have now is price war between the OPEC countries and the new oil founders if you know what i mean, for the look of things oil is heading to 33/30 level there it would now form a strong double bottom and i believe OPEC would wake up for then every country that produce oil would feel the pain but those that are not would laugh and enjoy the game .
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dp Justin
Yes, I agree that investors nerves are stretched due to the fact that so deep Crude fall without any hint to correction. Any event now can be the spark to start the rebound.

Lybia is cutting production and shutting down two ports -- will it be the start of reaction?

And yes, the end of any rebound will be recognition of the fact that Crude oversupply hasn't stopped.
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happy new year, with oil price almost done with the price projection i gave last year 45.00 level
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dp Justin
Happy New 2015 year and prosperity!

Congratulations with successful price projections!
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