captain_smollett

USOIL. Last options for bears

TVC:USOIL   WTI CRUDE OIL
2 months ago
As per my previous idea and despite an impressive bull run we are having on oil             , I´d still miss a leg E of my large-scale triangle.

Nevertheless, we should never ignore the signs market sends us. A wise trader said: trade what you see, not what you think. And I can only see 5 green daily candles in a row. Last time it happened, we went from 41 to 49 in a term of one week.

Bears have only two options left to turn oil             back to 40-lows. These options are: 50 and 51.60 per barrel. We are less than 1 ish             from the first level and this surely will be stormed with tomorrow´s EIA             report.

Beware of bearish report: Genscape and API were very bullish but it is the EIA             report who has always been in charge to put the things on their place. In normal conditions, we should see 50 falling down tomorrow but, as always, market will decide if we continue the rally or not.

Notice SPX500             and DXY             were not really supporting oil             these days.
2 months ago
Comment: Today Oil has tested the first critical level of 50 Dollars per barrel. Notice 1H bearish divergence which opens possibilities for short-term shorts, approximately to 47 Dollars per barrel.

Eventually, shorts from current levels will be rewarded with further profits if the NFP report on Friday pushed US Dollar higher.
2 months ago
Comment: Oil breaks first critical level of 50. Well done for bulls! Some charts below as usual
2 months ago
Comment: Last hope for bears: 51.50-51.70 zone. After that, oil has a free room to run a little more, correct and then get to 65-70 before the end of the year
2 months ago
Comment: It has been a 62nd week in a row which oil failed to close at 50 ish or above. Huge, huge, huge level!

Chart below
snapshot


Bearish divergence at 1H Timeframe
Reply
snapshot


I use this chart to determine how "healthy" are the oil moves. On a left-hand side you have a chart for Gasoline futures which, in normal conditions, forwards oil with a correlation above 90%. Now, check the last 3 days: Gasoline futures climbed from August lows with oil but now stuck in a triangle. Oil broke a very similar triangle days ago and now overpassed 50. Obviously, the option now is for the gasoline futures to have a huge raise but... I have my doubts this will happen
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snapshot


If they ask me to sign this off, I would do it right now
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