TVC:USOIL   CFDs on WTI Crude Oil
POSSIBLE RETRACEMENT IMMINENT - CAN REVERSE ANYTIME

The Beast has been adhering to the boxes pretty well and after the literal wrestle with 88.37 (top of last significant box) price has been able to recover yet another of 2014's Red Vector Candles, give a nice drop and a beautiful long from the base of the move.

Although this is a 4HR analysis, in the hourly - for those who also use EMA lines - There was Blue candles starting to appear. The fact that there was a Blue Vector Candle recovered by a red one in the 4hr timeframe, we were already long, Then had to endure games to the 50 EMA on the 4HR timeframe. Open to the idea that it could go down to 86.07 where a Green Vector candle from 260122 is in the hourly. Well it didn't and we had to settle for the 50 EMA . (86.85) After enjoying a $2 (200) short it was only right that Oil did a U turn and started to proceed on its journey up.

There are more Vector candles are here as labelled in the chart. It is here now, why not just grab them. Well as we saw in the breaking of the last box, oil can drop 5-7% and still go up so longs up here are definitely a dangerous game but if your holding from below then good stuff.
The best prices we have are 86.85.
Well with the Asian session we have just woken into our 90.7 target we spoke of yesterday in the Oil chat has been hit even before London session. This is insane and the fact that there are more Red vector candles up here make it even crazier.

The top of the next 4 hour box is 93.65 and the Red Vector candle from September 2014 is at (93.4.) If all of this happens on a Friday this would be amazing.
This is the only reason we hold partials on longs to avoid all the drama in between zones. But equally we short the recovery of the Red Vector candles and scalp at every opportunity. If it gets to 93.4 - 93.6, we will definitely be shorting from there to see what we get out of it.

We have closed 50% of the 80% we had left from the position from 86.8. (20% was closed at 88) as we are currently at a top of a box (91) at the point of publishing this idea. 91.82 is the next Bullish target as that is where the next Red Vector from 2014 is but we are more than ready for a retracement if one comes as we have the Green Vectors that were used to get us here as places where liquidity will be grabbed from. If it beats 91.82, 93.4 is quite a distance to travel but I guess we have seen crazier things on Oil .

Today will be a very interesting day where we see another new high by the end of it, but one thing we are definitely looking out for is a decent drop after recovering one of these Red Vectors from 2014.
Which one it will be, we don't care too much but know that every time one is recovered , we get a good scalp and indeed decent actual shorts, even as it continues to go up.
What we need to look out for however is all of the daily signals that were given


BEARISH VIEW:

There's always room to be Bearish when we take out Key Red Vector candles. But they genuinely do exist in the chart above $100 so is the Big short that we all want waiting above there? Who knows.

We are looking for short scalps at key resistances and we have moved sells stops up so much on this journey it's ridiculous.
The main thing is when it does go short, for what ever reason Media create, there will be some happy people everywhere
As mentioned above, there were a lot of Green Vector candles used to manipulate price up here. Furthermore we are at the top of a box.
This means that even if its just dollars or if its $10, there should be a short loading to go and get some Green Below. If we start to see Purple at the top recovering Greens on the way down, we will have some bearish signals. But if we keep seeing Blue recovering Reds, its going in one direction overall. (up)

We continue to look for the following to confirm the Total switch of Bias to Short and they are as follows:

- We have already seen the Bearish moon in MP indicator (short was less than $3) Bigger and better short could be loading
- Losing the embedded on the RSI properly
- 4 Hour closes in boxes below
- The recovery of Red Vector candles at Super key Resistances

When Price recovers a Red Vector candle at the highest point that it will get to today, wherever that is, there will be a very good short that will last the end of Fridays session through Monday. If the Bull run is done, this will be the beginning of the fall. If the Bull run is not done then the sell will last till Monday/Tuesday and they will resume Bullish activity to get more Red Vectors from 2014.
It has currently recovered 5 in a week. The last 2 recovered were mentioned on our last idea. 89.4 brought an instant short and it looks like 90.71 will give at least a short scalp.

Good luck Guys!

This is not financial advice and should be taken with a pinch of salt!
Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.