During the whole of September oil is in a consolidation mode via a complex corrective wave 2. It appears that the last extended wave E is composed of yet another extension of the w-x-y-x-z type. As long as prices remain below the negatively sloping trend line K-L, there is a high probability of low retesting. Re-examining wave 1 it appears that it is composed of an a-b-c sub-structure, which means that after the end of waves 2 (target 38) & 3 (target 56) a new final declining trend will emerge (targets 30 to 26; ultimate bear cycle lows).
Comments
WeMakeMoney
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Are you still bearish oil?
cfetrader
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The situation is very complex, wave E particularly. As long as line K-L remains unbroken, I expect wave 2 to end lower at about 42 or even 38, else a rising wave 3 will drive prices towards 52 to 56.
cfetrader
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Looking from a "distance", oil may have entered the 3rd (or c) wave. One or two more candlesticks will provide enough evidence.
WeMakeMoney
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Do you think the low will be retested next week?
cfetrader
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Most probably yes, September the 30th based on the chart (Z)-wave projection. Of course (Z) could also be subdivided into 5 additional waves making the whole process more complex, prolonging therefore the low towards anywhere between 5-15 October (usual stock seasonal bear market ending).
WeMakeMoney
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Ok thanks
cfetrader
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Yes, this chart is fine. Particularly like the inner rising (thick blue) line, which was just retested from below (standard "goodbye" pattern).