chartwatchers
Long

OIL - Epic breakout from the bull flag

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
2481 51 45
Higher high....
Finally we have the breakout of the bull flag .
Guys I hope you start to believe me that I know what I'm doing. I've seen and lived through the same thing in 2009 when oil             came out of the beartrapped double bottom after the bear market.
The difference that I was on the wrong side at that time. I've learnt the lesson very well :
Do NOT short the oil             bull !

Oil             will start to go crazy now. Everybody starts to realize that something is wrong with the fundamental system. The datas are lying. Suddenly everybody wants to be on board with the oil             bull .
There was no reason to come back below 40$ . Saudis played ou their last card in Doha. That was enough to break down - and not up -from the 1st bull flag .

Mark my words: in 2 weeks we will be above 50$.
Our energy stocks (VALE, CLF             , LGCY             , and maybe REXX             , ARP             ) will start their home run in the following 2 weeks.

I have to be sincere: I haven´t believed it until this weekend =) Great analysis from the beginning! Hope you´re long from 26.03
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captain_smollett PRO captain_smollett
And, by the way, thank you for all postings on this!
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chartwatchers PRO captain_smollett
Thank you for your support. This is the best thing to share some ideas with others and watch as it comes true.
+2 Reply
chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
My average is around 30$. At 26$ noone knew that it's turninig. ;)
+1 Reply
Is there any price possibility to jump up?
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I will waiting 42$...is it still possible a retracement till this price?
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I think it just tested back the breakout at 44.40 at the night and that's it
+1 Reply
Thanks. Should have a nice run coming.
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I love your analysis !! Man, you know something that I don't !

Really appreciate your effort.
+1 Reply
Thanks for your support.
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AL_G king24253
yeah CW is spot on, love the bold predictions aswell, when he says "mark my words" he means it, track records is great. look at LGCY he said if it breaks $1.01 its a buy well its almost $4 now. MRO same thing moving to $15, Oil same thing Gold same, list goes on on & on......
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I wish I have followed him sooner !! He is gr8 !!!
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Its the 5 th and final wave to 45$ where it is meeting .236% fib on a monthly chart and weekly channelling resistance .A major reversal is imminent either towards 20$ or even lower like 10$--15$ .historically may ,,June very bad month for oil (unless there is war) looking at usdcad which is inversely co-related it is also ready to reverse to complete the 5 th and final wave towards 1.5
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I don't think we will go below 30$ in our lifetime...
But we need the shorts to reach 50-60$. So ...
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I don't buy this theory about a 5th wave down because it would have done so around 41-42 (61.8), its now retraced about 70% of 3rd bear wave so a threat of reversal has reduced significantly in my opinion, but stranger things have happened before, lets see
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awesome... kudos to you! :o)
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Thanks Webmiztriz:)
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Great post and analysis! Please keep us in the loop with any more analysis
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I have a few more ideas for this year... :)
+2 Reply
shinsky chartwatchers
Looking forward to your insight
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So are you long? Did you buy UWTI?
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Yes I'm long since this post of mine:
OIL - THE NEXT BIG THING
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chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
And I hope that who follows me entered this time the latest:
Energy Trade 1.
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a possible pull on the break? I'm long , but I wanna raise my position.
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It's more and more dangerous to add if you have a winner position.
Check the Energy trade I posted when is the last time when I add oil.
But you can buy oil stocks. Oil will not run to the Moon. It will be in a range after some time.
BUt oil stocks will skyrocket for years.
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adelb chartwatchers
yeah. as I said before to you differences between this situation and 2009, is that this time we will not see oil going up so fast as it did some years ago. situation is different (also the graph ). anyway now the interesting part will be the final tp of this movement, and the beginning of the second day cycle short.
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The reason it jumped tonight was because of API... EIA is tomorrow morning at 9:30EST. It will boost the price even more. So if you do not buy tomorrow morning, you may not get the chance to purchase again under $44
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Daban PRO keefer0
Thank for experience and analysis . You guys are fantastic .What about CRC among the other energy companies, while considering low usd values and Bullish Curude oil separately?
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what do you feel for Brent??? how would it fare viz-a-viz WTI ?? do you think it would loose value to the WTI or be in +$2.5-3 range above the WTI ???
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I'm following only WTI
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ma.sanjuy chartwatchers
may i request your views on Brent as well ??? just out of yr past experience / chart study?
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Once again , awesome analysis from the outset, shows that market sentiment combined with chart analysis is a must, than blindly looking at chart patterns
+1 Reply
Thanks for the support.
You are righ very much:
Cycles, sentiment, chart patterns, indicators, candlestick patterns. Thes are our weapons in this order.
+1 Reply
Trendhopper chartwatchers
thank you , learning a lot from you
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Is it possible that we see Elliot wave ?
snapshot
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Trendhopper silvi.petrov.5
Yes, i believe its a 3rd wave, however your chart shows wave 3 as shortest wave and it should be longest or 2nd longest so it will go to 50-55 in my opinion
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silvi.petrov.5 Trendhopper
in pair trading the 3th wave is the longest, and in commodity the 5th is the longest extending to 1,618, atleast that's what i know.
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Stefan_A PRO silvi.petrov.5
Hi, a 1-2-3-4-5 is a 1-2-3-4-5 and there is no difference if it is Forex, Commodities or stocks
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silvi.petrov.5 Trendhopper
but yea, i think you are right about 3rd wave
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silvi.petrov.5 silvi.petrov.5
I forgot to say you are amazing, i've been following you lately and enjoy your analys and explanations. Thank you !
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Perfect analysis from you.I belived you,but buying today.Hope it is not late.Thanks for charts bro.
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did u see the volumes?
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The breakdown voulme 2 hrs ago?
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XTAL.ball chartwatchers
I keep selling after big red candlesticks... FML
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tbuckle PRO chartwatchers
should we just remain long or is there a good pull back level to anticipate. "break down volume" meaning high enough volume to break through the highs???
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imho perfect pull on the bull flag.
snapshot
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Yes. it was perfect.
+1 Reply
Josef2016 chartwatchers
You really know what you do.Nice done.
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DO NOT SHORT THE OIL BULL! Nice analysis - you are the man!
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Purely technical views, I like these very much, as everyone has his first day so as mine, I read these analytical discussion for the first time and enjoyed well. Now I will definitely follow you everyday.
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Purely technical views, I like these very much, as everyone has his first day so as mine, I read these analytical discussion for the first time and enjoyed well. Now I will definitely follow you everyday.
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