chartwatchers
Long

OIL - 4hrs update with entry points

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
1148 18 27
7 months ago
DAY 7 in the new daily cycle.
We took out the prevoius high yesterday. But couldn't close above it.
Is it good news or bad?
Bad news for the traders who are already in, but good news for the ones whho would like to get on board.
And a hope for the bears who are trying to short again.... :)

As I thought it seems we will not break the 200 EMA before the DOHA meeting...
We might print 2 low volume nothing day today and tomorrow. I'm watching the energy shares very carefully, if they rally then smartmoney got the information that agreement will be and they will be buying energy shares today and tomorrow. ( Not every big player is trading OIL             futurescontracts, many just buying energy shares if they know that oil             is going up or just holding the gains in a range.)

So where to enter or add?
This is the last point where I add position to my portfolio. I want to close my gains so I dont want to enter into a surprise decline with a huge position which will reset my account.

Possible entry or adding points:

20 EMA on this 4hrs chart- in a strong rally this supporting the price (40.8)

200 SMA (light blue horizontal line ) a lot of traders are watching the 200 SMA and not the 200 EMA. We broke this already so a testback of the 200 SMA is possible. It is at 40.5$ now. It's a possible point to test back.

50 EMA (39.6)

The dollar is in an epic rally , but wont affect oil             price too much.

Be patient maybe nothing will happen till sunday.

7 months ago
Comment: So here we are at the 10 EMA.
It's starting to look scary isn't it...?
:)
Voulme is still low...
snapshot
Gwoog
7 months ago
I don't understand volume much. I trade mostly forex so I don't use it. So when volume goes up and price comes down does that mean price goes opposite volume? Does that mean big money is pushing the price a certain way. Anyways, thanks for the updates.
Reply
chartwatchers PRO Gwoog
7 months ago
If we have a pullback the volume should be smaller than the breakout- or rally volume- and the volume during the pullback is good when it's decreasing.
That means that sellers are drying up.
Reply
Gwoog
7 months ago
So, low volume on the pullback means the pullback is weak and the trend should continue? But/sell on low volume on a pullback?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO Gwoog
7 months ago
1st question : yes
2nd I dont understand buy/sell?
+1 Reply
Gwoog
7 months ago
I think with low volume, add to your position if you see low volume on a pullback? How important is the volume to your trading? Thanks again for your answers.
Reply
xiiimik
7 months ago
Hello! What do you think of SP500? Currently it is on strong resistance at 2080. Seeing divergence signal. For last month SPY and USO had correlation of 0.0137 (http://www.buyupside.com/calculators/stockcorrelationinput.php). Seems like rising oil prices will not help other stocks outside basic material sector. What do you think?
Thanks.
Reply
chartwatchers PRO xiiimik
7 months ago
I'm 100% sure that we are running to new highs.
I will post an analysis this weekend.
We will have an "elections rally" - so shorting is a suicide.
Reply
jackcrudeoil
7 months ago
HI, congratulations for your analysis.
i've just sold my long position with a good gain before meeting...what do you suggest for next week? i think that a test back its possible...in this case which price do you suggest to wait before buy? thanks
Reply
chartwatchers PRO jackcrudeoil
7 months ago
Sometimes it's good to lock the gains. Especially before such an important meeting.
But you have to prepare if the meeting produce good news we will break up.
If we will have bad news some kind of pull back will be but the rally will continue.
And I don't think powers want sub 40 oil prices. They want to stabilize prices above 40$.
They won't miss this chance on sunday...
+4 Reply
jackcrudeoil chartwatchers
7 months ago
thanks for reply and your time
Reply
nexuz
7 months ago
also we are at the 50 EMA in the 4h chart now and we got a tight resistance area below 40 - but im also a bit nervous about the meeting :) gladly doha is nearly in the same timezone so the news should be there on sunday right away.
Reply
chartwatchers PRO nexuz
7 months ago
Exactly. That will catch up the price with this volume.
Reply
nexuz chartwatchers
7 months ago
i need a drink for that kind of trade :)
Reply
nexuz
7 months ago
Nice example about missleading News: yesterday reuters released a news that there wont be an agreement in Doha. About 30 minus ago they released this: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-meeting-draft-idUSKCN0XE02Y

So it Looks like expected now even, better imho cause of the next Meeting in only 6 months
+1 Reply
keefer0
7 months ago
What are your thoughts now? It gapped down 6% and only one market is open so far.
Reply
nexuz
7 months ago
going to be flat today till europe and us opend. guess there will be more down pressure then. still cant believe that SA killed the deal in the last moments.
Reply
CyBriz
7 months ago
should we buy at discount?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO CyBriz
7 months ago
My energy trade is full.
I'm not adding more.
WIth moeny management you can add.
I still think that even saudis cannot stop the 2nd daily cycle.we might not be going
to 55 only 50$. That's all they could do.
They were short since last Thursday.
+2 Reply
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