OIL - Weekend analysis

FX:USOIL   CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI)
1747 36 32
This week Monday the correction started in oil             from the 300 EMA . It's not such an important level but the previous rally couldn't break it through.

Candles, patterns, volume & EMA
We had 2 big red candle day : one of them below the average volume and next day above the average.
The 2nd day price closed below the 10 EMA . When price is closing below the 10 EMA in most of the cases the decline continues. So Wed was important: but look what happened with a very high volume we closed on the 10 EMA without tagging the 20 EMA . That was a bullish sign to me . The following 2 days' volume has increased and bears were fighting hard shorting oil             day after day but we were just crawling on the 10 EMA without breaking it down again.
This time the resistance was the 300 SMA from where we turned down every day.
Watching the volume and my EMAs oil             is still bullish to me.

From the main indicators the only weak is the MACD . It crossed down and has divergencies.
RSI left overbough but turned up from 50 which shows relative strength it wants to run to overbought again.
Slow stochastic seems wants to cross over again and enter into the overbought zone.
True strength index hasn't crossed over yet.

Daily cycle
We are on day 23. The last cycle topped on day 28 and it was quite an early top. So we will have around 2 more weeks while oil             will rally - even if we have 3 daily cycles in this intermediate cycle.

Summary : I still think oil             will reach 50$+ in this daily cycle. I don't suggest to " bet the farm on it" buit you can use this as buying the pullback in the oil             shares which can produce greater profit than going long in oil             future contracts.
ERX looks beautiful, or as I mentioned the individual shares like CLF             , SXE             , VALE are looking good to buy again.

So when I set LONG in oil             it doesn't mean I'm opening a long position now. I'm long since 30$. I'm holding my longs right now and i will post when jump out of them.

Comment: The hourly chart's 300 EMA is a very strong resistance now.
That might be our launch pad for the daily cycle top at 50$.
Comment: We are testing the 300 EMA again.
Comment: We are in the support zone.
Should be reversing from here.
Comment: It seems holding oil was the good decision again. We might be ranging for a few more days before starting to rally again. Today we just bounced from the 20 EMA and regained the 10 EMA again.
I hope now you understand why it is useless to try to short this market. When you jump into the short position the next day price just reverses and you are sitting in a nice loss...
Just as I predicted as soon as stocks starts to rally oil will follow.
API numbers: Crude build of 3.45 mln barrels
Cushing build 1.46mln barrels
Gasoline +271K barrels
Distillate -1.36mln bbls
So far no big movement in wti price. EIA do out tomorrow. I am looking for a smaller number from the EIA.
Thanks Madryga.
41.8$ is (D)
Hi Chart. The price of crude oil to be down support to the 41.18$ . Then Long.
Thank you for your updates and analysis.
no buyer now
Hi Chart . Oil Short
I don't like the oblique chart patterns.
So if I have to say a pattern I would say a double top or a cup &handle.

The problem even if it's breaking down there is a very little chance to get a follow through : we are at the half of this intermediate cycle.
So the worst could happen that we are entering a range between 42-46 for weeks. I will have at least one more possibilty (maybe 2-3 to exit at the top).
As soon as the dollar rally slows down and stocks start to rally oil will reverse immediately.

And I don't suggest short from here. If you afraid that your profit fades away you can close in some profit.
I'm still holding.
by strong resistance... do you also mean 'support' ...?
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**the 300 ema
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