This week Monday the correction started in oil from the 300 EMA. It's not such an important level but the previous rally couldn't break it through.
Candles, patterns, volume & EMA We had 2 big red candle day : one of them below the average volume and next day above the average. The 2nd day price closed below the 10 EMA. When price is closing below the 10 EMA in most of the cases the decline continues. So Wed was important: but look what happened with a very high volume we closed on the 10 EMA without tagging the 20 EMA. That was a bullish sign to me . The following 2 days' volume has increased and bears were fighting hard shorting oil day after day but we were just crawling on the 10 EMA without breaking it down again. This time the resistance was the 300 SMA from where we turned down every day. Watching the volume and my EMAs oil is still bullish to me.
Indicators From the main indicators the only weak is the MACD. It crossed down and has divergencies. RSI left overbough but turned up from 50 which shows relative strength it wants to run to overbought again. Slow stochastic seems wants to cross over again and enter into the overbought zone. True strength index hasn't crossed over yet.
Daily cycle We are on day 23. The last cycle topped on day 28 and it was quite an early top. So we will have around 2 more weeks while oil will rally - even if we have 3 daily cycles in this intermediate cycle.
Summary : I still think oil will reach 50$+ in this daily cycle. I don't suggest to " bet the farm on it" buit you can use this as buying the pullback in the oil shares which can produce greater profit than going long in oil future contracts. ERX looks beautiful, or as I mentioned the individual shares like CLF, SXE, VALE are looking good to buy again.
So when I set LONG in oil it doesn't mean I'm opening a long position now. I'm long since 30$. I'm holding my longs right now and i will post when jump out of them.
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The hourly chart's 300 EMA is a very strong resistance now. That might be our launch pad for the daily cycle top at 50$.
We are in the support zone. Should be reversing from here.
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It seems holding oil was the good decision again. We might be ranging for a few more days before starting to rally again. Today we just bounced from the 20 EMA and regained the 10 EMA again. I hope now you understand why it is useless to try to short this market. When you jump into the short position the next day price just reverses and you are sitting in a nice loss... Just as I predicted as soon as stocks starts to rally oil will follow.
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MMadryga
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Okay so now a bit positive Bull news International rig counts; 2016
Latin America Europe Africa MiddleEast AsiaPacific Total Intl. Canada U.S. TotalWorld
Jan 243 108 94 407 93 1045 192 654 1891
Feb 237 107 88 404 182 1018 211 532 1761
Mar 218 96 91 397 183 985 88 478 1551
Apr 203 90 90 384 179 946 41 437 1424
In addition; yesterday Canada has suspended 40% of their production which amounts to a 1 million barrels a day. All workers that provide services to the Fort McMurray tar sands, the thrid largest oil field in the world, have no place to live everything burned to the ground. It is expected that the hub will be out of production for weeks.
Weekly rig counts for North America 457 to 451 only the Permian Basin (Texas) and Mississipian Basin added rigs (May values)
rjsulliv
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Hello Chartwatchers, you seem very knowledgeable could you please give me your opinion on the dismissal of Al-Naimi? Or anyone else on this thread that has thoughts about whether the dismissal is bullish or bearish for oil. Thoughts?? Thank YOU!!!
dimitriosb602
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Any news that causes volatility such as fires, change in power, changes the market.. This looks bullish for the short term
MMadryga
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API numbers: Crude build of 3.45 mln barrels
Cushing build 1.46mln barrels
Gasoline +271K barrels
Distillate -1.36mln bbls
So far no big movement in wti price. EIA do out tomorrow. I am looking for a smaller number from the EIA.
Latin America Europe Africa MiddleEast AsiaPacific Total Intl. Canada U.S. TotalWorld
Jan 243 108 94 407 93 1045 192 654 1891
Feb 237 107 88 404 182 1018 211 532 1761
Mar 218 96 91 397 183 985 88 478 1551
Apr 203 90 90 384 179 946 41 437 1424
In addition; yesterday Canada has suspended 40% of their production which amounts to a 1 million barrels a day. All workers that provide services to the Fort McMurray tar sands, the thrid largest oil field in the world, have no place to live everything burned to the ground. It is expected that the hub will be out of production for weeks.
Weekly rig counts for North America 457 to 451 only the Permian Basin (Texas) and Mississipian Basin added rigs (May values)