From mid November, the commodity has not even been able to clear 23.6% fibo retracements, it tend to collapse the moment it hits 43 levels.
The attempts of WTI crude to breach resistance at 43.20 levels failed which tested this level as crucial point of demand several times in the past (see blue colored circled areas). So we understand, at current stage such demand for this commodity is not seen.
In a long term, firstly, when major trend has been downtrend with a bottoming up at 37.75 areas, retreated almost to 49.60 levels (which is exactly 50% retracements from the bottom).
From then we believe the price valuations could not sustain in the major downtrend (see formation to push back the prices), as a result it has again showed declines decisively (see build ups).
As the prices tends to bounce volumes were shrugging off which would mean that upswings were not generating genuine .
is still signaling downward convergence with the slumping prices (currently 14 trending at 42.1289 while articulating).
Most probable scenario: Considering above technical reasoning, it would certainly drag back to 39.90, if it manages to break below this level decisively then 37.75 is also possible in the weeks to come. For now, we are on this commodity and advisable to sell on every rally.
Reiteration of crude bears destiny – $39/brl areas seem favorite for bears