IvanLabrie
Short

Crude oil (WTI): Get ready for a meltdown

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
Target on chart, you can see how the different time at mode signals work together to give us a good idea of where price is headed.
I'll place my short orders now, hopefully I get a fill before it's too late. A retracement here would be terrific.
Good luck,
Ivan.
Comment: I had gotten out of this short at 39 and flipped long.
Then closed longs at 44. Didn't expect such a large rally!
Interestingly enough, price stopped back at the downtrend mode, see?
If it breaks up, it has legs to hit 53-56.
I made a mistake, the duration of the downtrend should be 13 weeks, so time expires by Oct. 19th-23rd.
+1 Reply
what will trigger this fall if it happens?
Reply
What do you mean?
It's a confirmed setup for me already.
A new low under 42.01 would surely guarantee this outcome or worse.
+1 Reply
HiTech PRO IvanLabrie
I mean fundamentals
Reply
snapshot


Not kidding when I say meltdown.
Reply
HiTech PRO IvanLabrie
I am sure you are being serious, but what fundamentals do you thing should or did trigger this fall?
Reply
my downside target is 27.25, pretty much the same as yours
Reply
I have no idea, it's a very complex scenario...a big clue is how there are a lot of dollar bears lately, more than normal.
Reply
HiTech PRO IvanLabrie
anyhow looks like probability for this to happen is quite good, thanks for bringing it to my attention :)
+1 Reply
Tree1 HiTech
Crude oil supply has increased and will rise further especially since the Agreement with Iran a few weeks ago to lift sanctions. One of the sanctions lifted will enable them to export more oil. Also with a failing demand for commodities from china in particular we can see oil supply exceed demand, hence the fall in price.
Reply
Im already short, been short for Dec and Jan 2016. Looking forward to meltdown mania.
+1 Reply
two months ago when the price at 62 you posted a idea, it saied price will go 7X, and now price go down to 43.76 from 62.55, agained you say the price will go 27! good luck guys hope you find pattern here
Reply
you sound like you lost on that trade and now trying to find the guilty one
+2 Reply
I'm with you buddy
Reply
oil will never reach $27, if it dips below $40 it won't be for long
+1 Reply
HiTech PRO Pip-thief
never say never :)
+1 Reply
Oil will breach 20. Commodity prices are retracing to 2001 levels over the next 2 years.
+1 Reply
Interesting to see so many people with the same outlook on crude:
Crude


I told many that it was only a matter of time. It was slightly humorous to see how many thought crude would be $80-plus.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO CommoditiesTrader
The difference is this is a technical setup, with entry/exit/stop, which happens to have a time and price target.
I have plent of forecasts too, but taking the actual trade isn't always doable.
Reply
Sure, I get that. I also have some trades, and trades are always doable depending on your objective. I could go in for a few dollars or build a position. I give my analysis and outlooks but refrain from set ups because I feel people piggyback too much. If they use my chart, that awesome!.
Reply
AristotelCostel CommoditiesTrader
Yeap.
This kind of chart? http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-dlJsZXsIi4Q/VUaG9DBwfQI/AAAAAAAABHc/AIk-m4KSRqY/s1600/OILWTI_3mai2015.png
Or this one? :P
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7t8TElGRPVU/VSKyaFgo7ZI/AAAAAAAAA_M/CSCAjF0y9xk/s1600/Gold_1100_4aprilie2015.png
Reply
IvanLabrie PRO CommoditiesTrader
I mostly use this as a journal. Being right or wrong shouldn't matter, but it's easy to be emotionally attached to our forecasts.
+1 Reply
Absolutely!
+1 Reply
AristotelCostel CommoditiesTrader
Yeap. Don't get involved with your forecasts. Let's forget about them. Oh, and buy gold, it's near a bottom. At least in comparison with April 2011. >D
Reply
AristotelCostel CommoditiesTrader
Yeap, this is bullish for gold since april 2011. :D
Reply
IvanLabrie PRO AristotelCostel
Gold topped for a long time.
Reply
I know, but a commodities trader always buys gold, no matter what. :D It's kind of a contest.
Reply
IvanLabrie PRO AristotelCostel
Buying gold for no reason isn't trading...
Reply
Nice curious about whether it will break major support at 42 and then around 33. I dont really trade oil but very nice analysis!
Reply
Thanks.
I do trade it, but it's also a good instrument to track for dollar strength.
Reply
Tree1 IvanLabrie
Very true. Also with a more than likely rise in interest rate in the US this year Oil price may go your way!
Reply
Yes, rates will most likely increase this year. Looks like bond yields will increase, eurusd looks like it'll collapse this week, same as crude, and it's possible the stocks crash after some more rallying.
Reply
I PUBLISHED THIS THING 2 MONTHS BACK. SEE HOW IT PLAYED OUT ;)
CRUDE OIL(WTI) NEXT MOVE......
+1 Reply
moorekapital moorekapital
Should the green floor break convincingly, price heads back down into the 43ish.
Reply
IvanLabrie PRO moorekapital
The more emotional and VERY sure people we have, the better, specially if they take the opposite side.
I don't care if it goes up or down, I just trade what I get presented with in terms of opportunity.
Reply
moorekapital moorekapital
If we break and close below the prior low of 42.01, I'd look for short entries , targeting the 2008 November low of 32.40
Reply
IvanLabrie PRO moorekapital
Close is irrelevant to me, unless referring to a close with the low/high detaching from a mode.
Reply
here is my earlier setup on oil... sliced through the support like a knife through butter, so should continue moving lower
USOIL HEADING LOWER
Reply
I don't think fixed cycles are really useful, I don't use them at least. Doesn't quite fit with the growth/decay dynamics that price patterns normally exhibit. Fractals do present certain similarities between patterns but they are never quite the same.
Reply
HiTech PRO IvanLabrie
agree they don't work as expected, but there are certain dynamics that can be used effectively, and it works for me
Reply
That's the key, if you managed to coin a system with invalidation, entry, exit and probability of each setup, then you're good to go.
Say you managed to be wrong 75% of the time, you can still make money by taking very big risk/reward entries, and a lot of them. It's a matter of punching in some numbers.
Forecasting isn't trading, nor it leads to profits as a trader.
I do value having developed a methodical approach towards it, which I owe to Tim West here, but the main thing is being a profitable trader and that comes from experience with technical setups (thanks again Tim!) :)
+1 Reply
What's your entry on the short? Looks like 44.70 is a good price
Reply
45.24, on chart.
If not filled, no trade.
I had shorted before, this would be a scale in.
Reply
Lanmar PRO IvanLabrie
I've been scaling as well - closed short position this morning. Looking for re-entry. I can't seem to agree with 45.24. That would be a strong trend line break. Check out 46.66.
snapshot
Reply