USOIL | 4H Technical Analysis — Jul 15, 2026
Trump withdrew his 20% Hormuz transit fee proposal, stating Gulf nations prefer to invest in the US rather than pay tolls, and that he believes no one should be able to impose fees on the strait. However, the geopolitical backdrop has intensified. UAE confirmed two of its oil tankers were attacked by Iran in Omani waters, the largest attack since the ceasefire ended. The US responded with a third consecutive round of airstrikes against Iran and announced a maritime blockade of Iran, with the United States Central Command stating additional strikes were conducted to "continuously degrade Iran's ability to conduct attacks in the Strait of Hormuz."
WTI crude has breached above the descending channel upper boundary that has contained price action since the April peak near 110. Price is currently trading around 79.70, with EMA21 (76.79) having crossed above EMA78 (73.97), the first bullish EMA cross since the extended downtrend began, marking a meaningful structural shift.
The channel decline brought the price from 110 in early May all the way down to the 67 area by early July, a sustained and orderly move lower. The geopolitical escalation over the past week has driven a sharp reversal, clearing 72, 77, and now testing the 80 level from the low in under two weeks. The channel breakout combined with the EMA bullish cross is the most constructive technical setup WTI has seen since before the downtrend began.
RSI at 66.73 is elevated but not yet overbought, providing room for continuation toward the 80 and 84.50 resistance levels without immediate exhaustion.
Key levels to watch:
Resistance: 80 / 84.50 / 90
Support: 77 / 73.97 (EMA78) / 72 / 67 (channel low)
Bear case: A diplomatic breakthrough or ceasefire announcement could rapidly unwind the geopolitical risk premium. A close back below the channel upper boundary and EMA21 at 76–77 would suggest the breakout is failing, with EMA78 at 73.97 as the next meaningful support.
Bull case: A hold above 77 and a clean break above 80 keep the path open toward 84.50 and eventually 90. With the US blockade now active and Iran's maritime capabilities being actively targeted, the supply disruption risk premium appears durable in the near term.
Bias is bullish on the channel breakout and EMA cross — the structural picture has shifted for the first time since April, and the escalating Hormuz situation provides a clear fundamental catalyst to sustain the move above prior resistance.
Trump withdrew his 20% Hormuz transit fee proposal, stating Gulf nations prefer to invest in the US rather than pay tolls, and that he believes no one should be able to impose fees on the strait. However, the geopolitical backdrop has intensified. UAE confirmed two of its oil tankers were attacked by Iran in Omani waters, the largest attack since the ceasefire ended. The US responded with a third consecutive round of airstrikes against Iran and announced a maritime blockade of Iran, with the United States Central Command stating additional strikes were conducted to "continuously degrade Iran's ability to conduct attacks in the Strait of Hormuz."
WTI crude has breached above the descending channel upper boundary that has contained price action since the April peak near 110. Price is currently trading around 79.70, with EMA21 (76.79) having crossed above EMA78 (73.97), the first bullish EMA cross since the extended downtrend began, marking a meaningful structural shift.
The channel decline brought the price from 110 in early May all the way down to the 67 area by early July, a sustained and orderly move lower. The geopolitical escalation over the past week has driven a sharp reversal, clearing 72, 77, and now testing the 80 level from the low in under two weeks. The channel breakout combined with the EMA bullish cross is the most constructive technical setup WTI has seen since before the downtrend began.
RSI at 66.73 is elevated but not yet overbought, providing room for continuation toward the 80 and 84.50 resistance levels without immediate exhaustion.
Key levels to watch:
Resistance: 80 / 84.50 / 90
Support: 77 / 73.97 (EMA78) / 72 / 67 (channel low)
Bear case: A diplomatic breakthrough or ceasefire announcement could rapidly unwind the geopolitical risk premium. A close back below the channel upper boundary and EMA21 at 76–77 would suggest the breakout is failing, with EMA78 at 73.97 as the next meaningful support.
Bull case: A hold above 77 and a clean break above 80 keep the path open toward 84.50 and eventually 90. With the US blockade now active and Iran's maritime capabilities being actively targeted, the supply disruption risk premium appears durable in the near term.
Bias is bullish on the channel breakout and EMA cross — the structural picture has shifted for the first time since April, and the escalating Hormuz situation provides a clear fundamental catalyst to sustain the move above prior resistance.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.