Iran's oil is already on the black market. It's not changing the supply picture. Saudi Arabia can't produce more. Natural decline in producing wells will create less supply. Understand the fundamentals, not the headlines.
Iran oil is in black market becusae they want trade in euro and cheaper to attact customers so more supply. Mexico are drilling more wells, rrig count increasing in us, canada increasing oil, . Demand is less. Norway will banned use oil in 2022 an will use renwalble energy. China increase using solar energy, so did other countries which is why silver is up. Even india increase use solar energy. So did saudi.
You have a horrible understanding of the macro for crude. You didn't refute the natural production cliff and declining capex. CAPEX cuts will directly translate to less production. Rig counts are useless, look at actual wells and their production curve. You're just reading news headlines to me.