TimStuyts
Long

Crude oil, reversal might be ahead

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
624 15 10
It seems like crude oil             is finding a bottom within the 44             zone. Both the wave count shown by means of the ABC in blue as the wave count of lesser degree suggests a likely reversal out of the zone shown by means of the green horizontal lines.
It is unclear to say whether this is only the beginning of a bigger correction or whether the whole correction is close to its completion.
IF price accelerates lower breaking below the reversal zone I won't be looking for a buy. However so far both the number of waves as the many overlaps suggest that crude oil             is in a correction from the high at 51.50

updates will follow

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Comment:
snapshot

I was not able to trade this entry because I was asleep;-)
Nevertheless it all starts with a plan and this started by determining a potential reversal zone and what to expect next. We saw divergence on the 15 min tf from that zone and a 1-2-3 reversal pattern. If you executed the trade you are already up 2.5/1 Risk/Reward and might be already done for the day. No need to wait for closing candles if you know what you are looking for (this is a way to sell a standardized strategy but not a winning strategy). Also by moving to 4 hour candle chart for example the candles differ depending on the data feed your broker is using so you are waiting for a candle to close while your friend in another time zone is banking his profit. Charts show structure and structure shows all the data you need. So whether you use candles, lines or whatever you feel like as long as you know what you are looking at you know how to trade a move with the highest probability possible. Keep in mind that the 1 hour time frame DIDNOT give this kind of entry so when entering on the 15min tf manage the position on the 15min tf before you end up losing a winning trade.
Comment:
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gotta look at the trend as well..
Reply
Exactly, so that's why I follow the plan since it explains structure of the trend. Good luck!
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I called the short as you can see in my previous posts about crude oil in the 51 area, however it doesn't look impulsive yet, so we either see the reversal as described OR we accelerate lower and go back to the original plan.
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Fabby TimStuyts
Good Call on your 51, but i think sentiment now has the upper hand.
+1 Reply
Very possible so let's see what structure tells us.
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Fabby TimStuyts
Good points,

Keep in mind we just rolled over to Sept contracts and its already down back to 44 area.
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The thing is there are several possibilities that all suggest a strong move soon. This can be either bullish or bearish. Originally I was looking for a move towards 20 again but at the moment structure doesn't support that. So imagine my wave A is in fact a wave 1, my wave B is in fact a wave 2. Then we might see another wave 1 at the moment (extension). This suggest lots of room to the downside but in both cases a consolidation is likely to happen soon. Therefore I need to see how price respond within the next few day's to determine the bigger picture. So the post is about the next possible trade opportunity which is a reversal out of that zone for now. If we don't see that but an acceleration lower, I will wait for it to settle and then sell the continuation. I never post trade calls but scenario's and in my previous posts I explain how you can trade those scenario's.
+2 Reply
the best
ardi.kota@gmail.com
Reply
Thanks for the analysis. If you overlay this oil chart on the CAD pairs (like usd/cad and eur/cad that we've been watching) they are almost identically linked, i.e. oil goes up, CAD gets stronger. Like you I am still looking for the C waves up in those CAD pairs, which would imply that oil falls and would favour the alternative count that you wrote about in your comment to Fabby (nice username). Cheers
+1 Reply
TimStuyts ezodisy
Yes USDCAD buy is working out well so far. Let's see because my minimum target for USDCAD is not that far anymore. and even if this was a correction for oil by means of an ABC is over for now it can also be part of a bigger ABC. Let's trade what we see and what's in front of us. It is good to have the scenario's clear so we can adjust when necessary.
snapshot
+2 Reply
ezodisy TimStuyts
Thanks for sharing your views.
+1 Reply
thanks
+1 Reply
Cant' say but mine is 42 to 56 to 25
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TimStuyts Sarfaraz Limbuwala
Yes that is one of the three scenario's I see as very likely (the levels can slightly differ). It is too soon to tell, I agree. So let's see what the market tells us. I trade Risk/Reward so pips don't really matter. As long as we know what to look for we can execute many trades on lower time frames like we saw today with the 15 min time frame. Now I like to see a consolidation for the next possible trade. Have a nice weekend!
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Thanks have a nice weekend
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