Chart shows 4HR price chart of USOIL-2.52% with RSI .
Divergences are noted on chart.
Key idea to keep in mind: The market has price and momentum movement that creates the window of r a new item to catalyze a move. Look at the fat bullish divergence that was in place prior to the "Freeze Tweet" that sparked the rally. If you look at the chart, the market was primed and ready to rally prior to that tweet.
Now look at the bearish divergences setup prior to the now-failed Doha meetings that just concluded. Notice the market has positioned itself for a price fall, with the momentum decline on higher price that makes up a bearish divergence?
Lesson? Listen to price and momentum. News often provides the justification for the next market move.
I love your ideas but I must call you out on the convenient timing of the post.
It's a great "look-back" but certainly would have been more significant if highlighted before the news of the Doha talks failing came to light.
At this point it's just conjecture and confirmation bias no?
PS: love your work, just want to be as objective as possible.
codypd
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Help me understand the timing issue. I posted this 4 hours ago. 3 hours before Oil opened for trading. I did so at the time the Doha failure was being tweeted out. Also, the point of the post is that news is a catalyst after the market is ready for it. You can still enter an oil short here.
I try not to be too speculative in posting ideas, BTW. Something I've learned from people PMing me about blown volatility trades.
ProBucks
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Geez that sucks. Try to ignore the idiots and peasants trolling and not taking responsibility for their personal trading P&L. Don’t let them hold you back man. You have some great stuff here and I appreciate you sticking your neck out for purpose of idea generation.
Have you ever visited iBankCoin.com? You’d be a great blogger for the site. I’m not a blogger 4 them yet but have always considered it. I have 2 get my personal stuff in order 1st though.
My qualm was that oil already opened up 6% lower today at 6PM. You posted before the open, but after the “Oil Plunges After Output Talks Fail Amid Saudi Demands Over Iran” headline from Bloomberg. The technical haven’t changed all weekend so the observation of momentum divergence gets diluted in the ‘after the fact’ timing of the post.
I’m pretty terrible at observing momentum accurately so I appreciate the overview but the predictive nature of the post is certainly weakens. Maybe that was purposeful though to avoid the whiners
codypd
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I used to write for a trading site under a pseudonym. Writing about trades screwed up my trading.
Sorry I didn't post earlier. I have done some with the "private" lock on them assuming followers would get them but never got any feedback.
When I see the momentum diverge again on the USOIL 4hr I will post it as I trade it.
ProBucks
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Would love that but of course you don't owe the readers anything. Was just pointing out my unsolicited observations. Thx for even entertaining the discussion
It's a great "look-back" but certainly would have been more significant if highlighted before the news of the Doha talks failing came to light.
At this point it's just conjecture and confirmation bias no?
PS: love your work, just want to be as objective as possible.