TVC:USOIL   WTI CRUDE OIL
2147 13 29
Friday we printed a key reversal. There is nothing to worry about we are early in this daily cycle.
If you entered on Wednesday or Thursday in the breakout it's not a disaster but now you have to survive a little drawdown. We are near to the middle of this daily cycle so we might be starting to move into the half cycle low. So next week I'm looking forward to see oil             to tag minimum the 10 EMA or the 20 EMA. As we are not in the initial phase of the bull - it's the 2nd intermediate cycle already - don't wait for the same rallies we saw in the 1st intermediate cycle. It will be a strong trending move but will tag the 10 and 20 EMA again and again on the way up. You were able to see this in the 1st daily cycle a few weeks ago. It was a frustrating cycle. If we have a strong trending move we will give back some of it. So now as we had a strong trending move for 13 days I'm sure we we will tag the 20 EMA before we break above 52$. If the decline is steep we might tag the 50 EMA.

The big support levels are the last DCL at 42.5$ and the 200 SMA (around 42$)

Summa summarum I'M waiting for a pullback to 47.5$. If we tag only the 10 EMA than this move is not the HCL             just the testback of 49$ the previous high. In this case HCL             is coming a few days later.

This is a neutral post as I don't suggest to enter right now because I think we will get a better entry point next week. In my energy trade I closed every oil             position only holding ERX .
But let me remember you again this is not a shortable market right now. The chance for a pop is much higher than a chance for a decline.
playthetrend
2 months ago
I am looking forward to trend line 46ish. The short position is built on Thursday and Friday. I think we will not go below 46
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playthetrend playthetrend
2 months ago
And I do think it is shortable to 47-46 with nice profit.
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO playthetrend
2 months ago
And if it's a testback of 49? And we break above 52$ after tagging 49?
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chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
2 months ago
In the bull market the good news are pushing much higher the prices than how the bad news pushing it down.
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playthetrend chartwatchers
2 months ago
If Monday green and Tuesday green, I will out immediately.
Check
Don
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chartwatchers PRO playthetrend
2 months ago
In short term it's ok then. Just mustnt sit into the position
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playthetrend
2 months ago
No exciting impulse before the next oil meeting. I think we will just be as confused as we did before. Rumors about promise will come out and push down the price down 50 again and again, while retest the trend line again and again, in November will break out the triangle up to 50s and to 60s
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jolu
2 months ago
hi arpi

i wanted to ask u where can i find more about cycles and how to calculate them ?it is very intersting how you use it in your analyze, i appreciate it very much!
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Nice chart, Sir! Thanks for sharing as ever!

What is curious is how oil and US Dollar went up together and printed a red candle on Friday. Do you think the correlation will be kept? I had an idea about why this can happen but I don't think it is valid any longer...
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sbuell
2 months ago
Hi
what do you Think about target up?
thanks
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cjprange
2 months ago
From my elliot wave model i think this is most likely a test back of 49 and a 5th wave towards 52. currently completing an A of ABC zig zag correction 4th wave towards 49.x Just my thoughts.
snapshot
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BeLyKan cjprange
2 months ago
I don't think Oil spend too much time in 4th wave. I just need RSI < 33, MACD near 0, and one reversal candle. It looks like 48.9 hopefully.
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ma.sanjuy
2 months ago
Hi Arpil.... any new update? Dont you think - prices are again inching upwards?
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