If you entered on Wednesday or Thursday in the breakout it's not a disaster but now you have to survive a little drawdown. We are near to the middle of this daily cycle so we might be starting to move into the half cycle low. So next week I'm looking forward to see oil to tag minimum the 10 or the 20 . As we are not in the initial phase of the - it's the 2nd intermediate cycle already - don't wait for the same rallies we saw in the 1st intermediate cycle. It will be a strong trending move but will tag the 10 and 20 again and again on the way up. You were able to see this in the 1st daily cycle a few weeks ago. It was a frustrating cycle. If we have a strong trending move we will give back some of it. So now as we had a strong trending move for 13 days I'm sure we we will tag the 20 before we break above 52$. If the decline is steep we might tag the 50 .
The big support levels are the last DCL at 42.5$ and the 200 (around 42$)
Summa summarum I'M waiting for a pullback to 47.5$. If we tag only the 10 than this move is not the HCL just the testback of 49$ the previous high. In this case HCL is coming a few days later.
This is a neutral post as I don't suggest to enter right now because I think we will get a better entry point next week. In my energy trade I closed every oil position only holding ERX .
But let me remember you again this is not a shortable market right now. The chance for a pop is much higher than a chance for a decline.