Trump previously stated that if Iran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8 p.m. Eastern Time on April 7, the United States will "completely destroy" Iran's energy facilities. Iran has closed all diplomatic and indirect communication channels with the United States and informed mediator Pakistan that it will no longer pursue ceasefire negotiations.
This means that there are likely only two possible outcomes in the next 48 hours:
Scenario A: The conflict de-escalates, and both sides reach some kind of compromise. Oil prices will face downward pressure, with WTI potentially seeking support at the $105 or even $100 level.
Scenario B: The deadline expires without an agreement, and the US takes military action. Oil prices are poised for a violent surge, breaking through $118 and opening up further upside potential to the $125-$130 range.
Currently, market funds are clearly more inclined to bet on the latter, which is the fundamental reason for the continued rise in oil prices during today's trading session.
The current USOIL issue is no longer purely a matter of technological trends, but rather a real-time reflection of geopolitics. Trump's deadline will be announced within the next 24 hours; until then, any technical analysis should only be used as a supplementary reference. The most important thing for traders to do right now is to keep a close eye on the news, control their positions, and manage their stop-loss orders.
USOIL $FXPRO:USOILK2026 USOIL USOIL USOIL
This means that there are likely only two possible outcomes in the next 48 hours:
Scenario A: The conflict de-escalates, and both sides reach some kind of compromise. Oil prices will face downward pressure, with WTI potentially seeking support at the $105 or even $100 level.
Scenario B: The deadline expires without an agreement, and the US takes military action. Oil prices are poised for a violent surge, breaking through $118 and opening up further upside potential to the $125-$130 range.
Currently, market funds are clearly more inclined to bet on the latter, which is the fundamental reason for the continued rise in oil prices during today's trading session.
The current USOIL issue is no longer purely a matter of technological trends, but rather a real-time reflection of geopolitics. Trump's deadline will be announced within the next 24 hours; until then, any technical analysis should only be used as a supplementary reference. The most important thing for traders to do right now is to keep a close eye on the news, control their positions, and manage their stop-loss orders.
USOIL $FXPRO:USOILK2026 USOIL USOIL USOIL 
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.