chartwatchers
Long

OIL - Update before inventory data

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
1920 12 39
8 months ago
Just as I thought the 200 EMA had stopped the price for a couple of days...
Today is a very important day. After today's inventory data we will see the next 2 weeks' direction.
AND I THINK IT WILL DISAPPOINT THE SHORTS AGAIN. :)

If the oil             inventory data is down we will broke above te             200 EMA and stop out all the shorts again (my bets are on this ) - green way. And we start moving to the 300 EMA
If the inventory data is down we start to move down into the DCL.

I highlighted in the blue box where I wait this daily cycle low and when...

I got a few messages to update oil             every day it seems I'm one of the very longs here.
Who wants a daily update please hit the like button and I see there is a demand for it. I will post every day , because this is the possibility of this decade....

Good trading !
Oil             inventory data today at 10:00 EST
8 months ago
Comment: OIL is printing a reversal on the 4 hours chart - bouncing from the 100 EMA.
I think we will try to break next week the 200 EMA - on the daily chart- again.
It's a bit too early for the move down to the daily cycle low.
If we can hold the reversal this level at 38,50 will be a strong resistance...
MMadryga
8 months ago
Well looks like we got a mixed bag in the EIA oil report gasoline inventories down 4.9 million but oil inventories up 9.4 million. With the US dollar up there is some pressure on the commodity looks like it will move sideways today but I think you are on the right track. Would love to see a daily update just my thoughts. Best.
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tbuckle PRO
8 months ago
So with the inventory data as it was are we going to go up or heading towards sinking to much lower?
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MMadryga
8 months ago
I do not mean to get into the minute details of refining but demand is going to outstrip supply in the refining business until 2021 according to Bloomberg. Plus we always see an uptick in the spring in WTI as refiners perform maintenance and switch to summer driving fuels. This supports Chartwatchers theory. On the down side a stronger US dollar will put pressure on the commodity and the recent turmoil in Brussels is making investors move to the US$ safe haven. My opinion, things depend on whether or not we can break back out to a bull market in the next day or so and attribute the decline solely to the rise in the dollar. Implying we are in a slight retracement and moving back towards Chartwatchers proposed trajectory. Best.
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Sonic_scheme
8 months ago
Even if the pull back is to be tested at 33 level, would you be happy to have the trend still in your favor to the long by getting prices lower.. Gl, i'm with you on this analysis.
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MMadryga
8 months ago
Well we are at the critical juncture of the 10 EMA $39.70 if theory holds true we could see the shorts get burned and we start to see a rise back to the 200 EMA. If it goes much below the 10 EMA we've advanced to the end of the 1st daily cycle. Your thoughts?
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KalluEmmanuel
8 months ago
please thanks for posting oil updates. continue am interested in oil
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farid_ardavani
8 months ago
these are my long term scenarios; i think right now its not a good time for entering long
snapshot
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NietoFX farid_ardavani
8 months ago
I agree with you... nice point of view and chart
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farid_ardavani NietoFX
8 months ago
thank you..
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MMadryga
8 months ago
I might be wrong but it looks like the retracement is complete. Heading back up...some shorts getting burned in oil stocks at the moment!
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dovaboy
8 months ago
supply should be going up I thought? Nigeria just said theyre 25 BBBillion short of where they should have been and imo are gonna sell more to recover from the loss of 25 billion, and Iranians been holding oil forever and not gonna listen to OPEC any more.
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dovaboy dovaboy
8 months ago
thats 25 Billion dollars $$
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