TradeApe
Short

Oil - Waiting for possible short re-entries

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
563 2 7
So the August low around 38 has been quite clearly broken, which is the main reason my overall bias is still short. In addition, we have the following fundamentals supporting shorts:

- Saudi Arabia's fighting a war for global power by trying to ruin competing shale oil             companies. They know they need to be forceful with this, a bit like ripping off a bandaid. It's cheaper in the long run to be really strong now rather than continually having to scare those companies.

- Storage is high.

- Production hasn't been cut, quite the opposite, the ceiling has been raised.

In light of this, I favour shorts and am looking for good re-entry points. I think the August low point around 38 might be good and it's also a POC             that has held a couple of days now. I'm basically using recent POCs as possible re-entry points, so 36.80, 37.50, 38.00 and if it overshoots a bit 38.50. Anything above that would force me to reassess.

The possible Fed rate hike might of course through a wrench in my plans, but for now I simply don't see a ton of reasons to go long. People kind of expect a rate hike and I don't expect this to change anything in the long run for oil             . I might be tempted to take a few short term longs around 35ish SHOULD I get a strong signal though. In that case, If that move has strength, I'd still look for shorts around 40 even if it's strong.
TradeApe PRO
a year ago
Forgot to mention, another reason price is likely to continue to remain low is because OPEC members don't trust each other. It's too easy to cheat and basically ignore production cut targets...and countries like Saudi Arabia know that. They can produce at a lower price than the rest, so they don't really have an incentive to cut production, at least not while they believe the rest won't really stick to cuts.
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Last wave on dynamic rise. No re-enter.
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