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MattArmstrong
Apr 1, 2020 5:48 PM

WTI - Long Idea. Long

WTI CRUDE OILTVC

Description

Oil is an interesting one as of late.
WTI has settled so deeply into a support area going back many years. The sell off on some charts even showed oil dipping it's toes into the 19$ mark...incredible. We obviously have major macro drivers here, but I am looking to go long for a swing trade (days, I fear weekend exposure these). We can see oil down with a support level from last month, it was strongly rejected at that first attempt to drop below it.
I know this is an hourly chart but there is a sizable pattern here that is repeating on higher time-frames.
You will notice that I applied a Fib level, see how OIL is trying but has not closed below that beautiful 61.8% level?

A notable event today were the inventory numbers, they are huge! so much supply, which obviously drives price down and it did not...I have taken the long as there is a "confluence"of evidence for me here. Saying all this I am using risk management.

MACD - Present.
RSI - Was over sold.
Pivot - We are at a support Pivot, albeit just #1.
Psych - major Psychological level of 20$

Trade active

We will see how far this bump brings us.

Trade active

We have seen a nice run up, price is starting to enter resistance, I see more upside but I have taken some profits and if conditions look right, I may add to the upside if the candles are telling me that story.

Trade closed manually

I have taken most of this position off, it has served me well and trying to milk a little more is not worth the exposure for me. Super small position on with a high risk reward ratio, for the most part position closed.

Comment

A couple Trump tweets for good measure, that was a good trade. I have scalped a bit, that gap at market open.
I see higher valuation.

Trade active

I went long again...I may do another updated trade idea.
Comments
monsefr
Hi Matt congrats for another nice trade idea and thanks for your comment and waiting to get more details from you :)
monsefr
Excellent call, like always you are some, and like many other I missed it again :(
MattArmstrong
@monsefr, I'm rolling out with some more communication options to keep you more updated. I'll keep you posted.
monsefr
@MattArmstrong, Thanks, really kind of you
SupaliteSV
Perfect !
MattArmstrong
@SupaliteSV, thank you.
tempotrader
Great chart and write up, very clear and concise. Thanks
MattArmstrong
@tempotrader, thank you!
danielgwatkin
I feel It's still risky considering most will not be using their cars for some time still. I have also bought some but I'm not confident and see it going all the way to $10 in a massive sell-off and then bouncing
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