chartwatchers

OIL - Just a few thoughts

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
1677 14 27
While I'm still 100% sure that we wil be visiting 50$ in the following 2-3 weeks,
I would like to warn those few people who are overleveraged. Yesterday we broke below the 10 EMA (daily) and the 20 EMA (daily) was holding the price. We also reversed from the green support zone which is becoming stronger and stronger.
Today the stock markets seem to be starting the rally - and I think oil             was just waiting for that to rally again - you still have to be get prepared that maybe the price wants to test back the breakout at 42$. If this is the case the 10EMA on this hourly chart is catching up the price to support the move down to 42$.

So I don't want anyone to get stopped out at 42$, if you are overleveraged it's your time to close some of the position.
It's just a possible move I'm not going to touch the energy trade.

Also the volume is very low on this pullback so I think we want to visit 42$ before the next rally to higher prices.

This is not a head and shoulders pattern before a waterfall decline (many was asking). Price is just fighting to bottom while the dollar is in a strong rally and stocks were moving down into the daily cycle low.
Comment: It seems holding was the good decision again...
We might be ranging for a few more days before starting to rally again.
Today we just bounced from the 20 EMA and regained the 10 EMA again.
I hope now you understand why it is useless to try to short this market. When you jump into the short the next day price just reverses and you are sitting in a nice loss...
Just as I predicted as soon as stocks starts to rally oil will follow...
snapshot
Comment: Powerful move in oil today.
We might have a breakout of the consolidation, or just tagging the upper line of the range...
Comment: WE took out 05.05. and 08.05 highs...
There is only the 29.04 high and we will be printing a higher high.
API will probably give enough momentum for that testback at 42
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Some encouraging OIL news:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3973266-tide-turning-energy
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Would it be safe enough to hold energy longs and use something like DWTI or DRIP to manage overall oil portfolio balances (similar to how we use DUST in GOLD?
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You mean hedging?
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AlphaDreams PRO chartwatchers
Correct. But it seems like I should have done this yesterday. Is it too late and risky to hedge now?
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AlphaDreams PRO AlphaDreams
I'd hate for it to trap me wrong sided.
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AlphaDreams PRO AlphaDreams
I lost quite a bit in ORIG, ARP and PACD yesterday.
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alanprotrader PRO chartwatchers
what about GOLD? short again?
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chartwatchers PRO alanprotrader
I'd wait now what's happening. Market is confused today.
Oil was good. But I think it just rallied because of the weaker dollar.

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Faiz chartwatchers
thank u ,
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U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum
Reserve) decreased by 3.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 540.0 million
barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at historically high levels for this time of year.
Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.2 million barrels last week, but are well
above the upper limit of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories increased while
blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories
decreased by 1.6 million barrels last week but are well above the upper limit of the
average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories rose 1.3 million
barrels last week and are above the upper limit of the average range. Total commercial
petroleum inventories decreased by 1.4 million barrels last week.
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That is not counting the draw expected next week due to the shut down in CDN tar sands production or the shutdown in shale plays in the US. We are going to rapidly see the effects of the last six months of low energy prices continue to play out in the coming months. In addition, China's consumption increased 12% YoY totally unexpected. There are some great opportunities out there in the oil sector patience is key.
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snapshot

checking resistance
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Now what is next, after EAI news. Thanks
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