wti daily chart with current PF. looking at key areas from 2017 peaks in downtrend to provide price barriers in current up move.
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more context to daily chart
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weekly chart with its PF and monthly
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monthly chart: note on chart is that last two large drops had 7 red candles. Looking at possibility current up move contains 7 green candles which would last through March 2018
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4hr chart. up sloping PF has had many touch points on median line. the initial dip below the lower parallel was mirrored on the upper parallel. the horizontal PF is new. i had a down sloping one prior using same pivots but latest activity invalidated it. On side until this resolves
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Daily price made great progress today moving toward the upper parallel on PF. Managed to break through a parallel that aligned with the 2017-04-12 high and the 1.75 level of the current up sloping PF. The next level is 66.7x followed by 68.3x. 68.3x will coincide with the next major parallell that aligns with the 2017-02-20 high. My end target for this daily PF is in the 69.9x - 71.0x range.
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if this weekly up sloping PF remains valid, the price, today has broken through median line on weekly chart. However, it'll need to maintain this and possibly close at next level of 67.1x. If this plays out, then potential test of the median line before continuing up.
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1hr chart looking for validation of position of up sloping PF with a test of the median line in the 65.5x area. price zoomed through the median line today so looking for a test of it before continuing up.
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based on price action, updating the 1hr PF angle with same pivots. implies that test of median line has happened and 80% probability now that upper parallel is target.
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Updated 1hr chart with a more probable PF. The one from last night seemed to make sense but today's price action seems to have added more clarity. With this PF, it looks like price hit near upper parallel and is in process of cycling through a correction. Indicators are pulling back and I think they need to hit oversold levels then diverge with price before next push up.
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same 1hr chart with indicators:
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Based on the monthly and weeky charts, i still believe the final target of this up move has a target of 72. To get there from this point, I believe the market goes through a 1.5-2 week consolidation before moving up to the 72 target. I'm watching this pattern from Nov/Dec to see if it plays out similar and if price tests the 200MA again too.
I think that March is the target time frame for the 72 and that would give something else that i'm watching on the monthly which is the 7th consecutive green candle in this move.
I think that March is the target time frame for the 72 and that would give something else that i'm watching on the monthly which is the 7th consecutive green candle in this move.
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2018-01-27 update
1H chart looks like Friday ended moving toward important resistance area for downsloping pitchfork to remain valid. watching the parallel on the blue up sloping PF along with the upper parallel of the down sloping to see if these act as a barrier for price Monday. I believe that something (time or price) need to pull indicators back down on daily to setup the next push to 72 which is my target for current leg
1H with indicators: Not positive these indicators look like they support the scenario of price close to resistance though 1H, to me, it most dynamic and can change quickly.
4H this is how I envisioned the scenario playing out on the 4H chart. While the new down sloping PF holds, I'm going to hang on to the idea that price pulls back onto the 200MA again in order to provide the spring to push price to the 72 level.
4H with indicators: Two scenarios I'm looking at. The first is as depicted and the second is that the yellow rectangle on current pattern has not completed and price still has more upside before the pullback onto 200MA happens. I'm on side until I can determine which scenario has higher probability
Daily: some reason I believe that daily chart needs a pullback onto some lower parallels to get the energy to continue up to the upper parallel of the daily PF in the 72 range.
Weekly: Broke through the median line of up sloping PF.
1H chart looks like Friday ended moving toward important resistance area for downsloping pitchfork to remain valid. watching the parallel on the blue up sloping PF along with the upper parallel of the down sloping to see if these act as a barrier for price Monday. I believe that something (time or price) need to pull indicators back down on daily to setup the next push to 72 which is my target for current leg
1H with indicators: Not positive these indicators look like they support the scenario of price close to resistance though 1H, to me, it most dynamic and can change quickly.
4H this is how I envisioned the scenario playing out on the 4H chart. While the new down sloping PF holds, I'm going to hang on to the idea that price pulls back onto the 200MA again in order to provide the spring to push price to the 72 level.
4H with indicators: Two scenarios I'm looking at. The first is as depicted and the second is that the yellow rectangle on current pattern has not completed and price still has more upside before the pullback onto 200MA happens. I'm on side until I can determine which scenario has higher probability
Daily: some reason I believe that daily chart needs a pullback onto some lower parallels to get the energy to continue up to the upper parallel of the daily PF in the 72 range.
Weekly: Broke through the median line of up sloping PF.
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Daily chart looks like this week could be a range starting down for the week but coming back middle toward end of week. Area to watch for price support is 64 to 62.8x. Prices could swing as high as 64.7x to 65.7x
4H chart still looks to be consolidating similar to Nov-Dec pattern and I'm still looking at 200MA to provide support.
However, I'm also watching price in the new up sloping PF I've added to see if it holds or price breaks below. Based on indicators on the daily chart, I'm anticipating price to break below the lower parallel of this PF.
1H view of 4H PF. What gives some credibility to this scenario is that price bounced off the lower parallel and had good separation. If price holds on this and doesn't break, then the pattern I mentioned above on daily and 4H could be ending early this week and price could be staging for next run up. This means that the 200MA on the 4H wouldn't come into play in giving support for price. This is a key point for me and will be watching to see what price does on this lower parallel.
4H chart still looks to be consolidating similar to Nov-Dec pattern and I'm still looking at 200MA to provide support.
However, I'm also watching price in the new up sloping PF I've added to see if it holds or price breaks below. Based on indicators on the daily chart, I'm anticipating price to break below the lower parallel of this PF.
1H view of 4H PF. What gives some credibility to this scenario is that price bounced off the lower parallel and had good separation. If price holds on this and doesn't break, then the pattern I mentioned above on daily and 4H could be ending early this week and price could be staging for next run up. This means that the 200MA on the 4H wouldn't come into play in giving support for price. This is a key point for me and will be watching to see what price does on this lower parallel.
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Update: Continuing to watch 4H for a setup to go long. Price is tracking toward a point I'm watching where several lines converge including the 200MA possibly.