Oil has started a weekly downtrend, which we accurately predicted, monitoring the positioning, sentiment and the spreads in oil against other instruments (energy sector, Canadian dollar, etc). I think we can hold our position for some time, we're short from 53.25.
Since we already hit the first 'clone' of the weekly mode range, we could stall here. I'm monitoring it, since we have a few fundamental key levels below price. If these levels don't hold as support, the market will test the next levels below, over and over until it is bid, after finding a floor at levels where OPEC might feel compelled to intervene again. I'm watching both the technicals, and the CoT report data, to determine where to exit the shorts. Good luck if already in, if not, better stand aside and wait to either go long at support, or simply do nothing until oil bottoms again.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
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The hourly is worrying, specially since we have hit the weekly range target #1:
I might take the short off and reenter higher, but waiting a bit more to decide.
The signal has time left, but the top of the OPEC cut day might end up being support. Let's see how today closes.
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I covered the short, I'll watch it. I entered longs in gold, and holding my EEM long term long.
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Looks like we could be bottoming here in the short term. I'll wait and see, wouldn't want to go long until spec longs are out. COT shows little change.
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Longs are being closed, but not yet safe to go long in my opinion. I'm watching from the sidelines, the downtrend has time left, and we need longs to get squeezed out.
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Time expires soon for the downtrend, looks strong. See updated post. USOIL could be about to break out and rip...maybe Saudis want to extend the cuts to boost their Aramco IPO.
Now I just can't decide... $50 for a barrel of oil, monthly JUL contract expirese mid June about 7 weeks away. Is this a bargain?
Fundamentally is summer a high price season? Are geo political tensions going to force it up? Is the OPEC deal going to work?
Technically quite a support level and on the daily roughly an uptrend (higher lows etc) has been forming but will it break the $55 resistance any time soon...
These are my ponders!
IvanLabrie
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@RJHumphries, hi, simple, invest in OXY, PBR, XLE instead...
good observation with calmness and paitent! very nice ;)
IvanLabrie
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@taming_the_mind, thanks, the downtrend needs more time to expire, so I think sideways/down is more likely here. I wouldn't short, since we are at support, but would rather wait for a confirmed long entry after futures positioning is more favorable.
Too many large speculators being long is a contrarian signal.
Fundamentally is summer a high price season? Are geo political tensions going to force it up? Is the OPEC deal going to work?
Technically quite a support level and on the daily roughly an uptrend (higher lows etc) has been forming but will it break the $55 resistance any time soon...
These are my ponders!