simonsays452
Short

Aggressive short through 100% retracement to $25.00

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
596 5 5
Yesterday's "Goldilocks" API report - not too much larger than expectations, but still a sizable build (>+2mmbb), coupled with crude's overnight price action gives me comfort that short-sellers won't be coming out en mass similar to the prior two reports. We'll still need to wait to see what the EIA             reports at 10:30am today, but the moves this morning in crude make me believe Janet's lack of über-dovishness is weighing more heavily on traders minds'. Last night, I saw a breakdown in an ascending triangle forming on the 30min chart and opened some monthly 25 puts. (http://www.basementmacro.com/uncategorized/bot-4-clh6-11000-mar-16-loh6-25-put-22-mark28-45/) I'm looking for new lows.

Just as I saw quite a few coinciding resistance levels at 32.80/33.00 at the last local high, I'm again seeing coinciding signals at the 25.00 level. The H&S shoulders top formation projects a price target of 24.02, which coincides very nicely with fib extensions b/w 23.99 and 24.99 and big picture support b/w 24.50 and 25.00. There's some fib extension support at 26.36, but other than that, we should see some acceleration down to 25. Stop is at the prior low at 27.53. Target is 25.00
michael231
10 months ago
EIA is bullish, it doesn't matter we keep short ?
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simonsays452 PRO michael231
10 months ago
I think the API and EIA data was "Goldilocks" - not bearish enough to cause significant short covering, which IMO is the only cause for technical rallies. I added some puts on the spike higher: http://www.basementmacro.com/uncategorized/bot-2-clh6-11000-mar-16-loh6-25-put-18-mark29-03/
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sorinelp
10 months ago
Tk.you
Reply
michael231
9 months ago
hi, Simon, technically, the single needle bottom in dally curve is a reverse signal. The other bullish news is the OPEC is willing to reduce production with non-OPEC countries by the saying of The Wall Street journal. Do you think we can keep short now ?
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michael231
9 months ago
OIL went up to 28, we can still hold the short ?
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