Traditionally goes up in February due to expectations of refinery buying. Because of the untimely rise it took in November, it's rise maybe delayed / stalled a bit as there seems to be a lot of selling pressure. Magic words to any producer is to hedge output at 55 for this year. There's going to be a lot of uncertainty due to a new government and that can easily delay oil's rise till end march.
Given the wide stop loss in my position, you may want to drill down into daily / intraday to look for better Risk / Reward ratio.