The Green time cycle shows the dates when oil stops a bull run. Even in a bear market, there will be bull run leading into this date... On this date we see the high. Even thought I only use this to predict the Week of the event (break to ).. It has been acurate to the DAY the last three years. As it predicted the break happened on Friday. October 7th. That is six complete cycles going back over three years. Simply put, we have reached the top of the wave until Apex of Red cycle, Jan 20, 2017. Oil is going down.
The Red shows at what point in the cycle oil will be at its low. Think of it as the inverse of the Green time cycle with a different wave timing. The low for oil will be on the Apex date of the Red . The last apex occurred (and was predicted) on Aug 4. This wave timing longer than the Green time cycle, so you can see it's apex can occur from days to months after the High of the Green time cycle. The difference in time between the two dictates the speed of the fall. This pattern is consistent.
Sure... I only make a handful of trades a year, and i normally swing them for about 3months, so why is this important to short term traders.. Because if you know the direction for the next few weeks or months, and you know any spike up before the Red date will be reversed to at least the prior low since the Green time cycle date.
All of last years gains where based on these trades.. I will be updating our other published ideas to consolidate them here. All are subsets of this cycle chart. If you have been following you know we are on a longterm big short from 47.10
You also know we made the trip from 40'ish to above 47 twice and our longterm shorts are still underwater. You also know that we also swung short-term shorts for +21% profits with a 1week trade.
Neither of these cycles predict price, just course and direction. Our target remains 38 WTI by Jan. 20, 2017. No do overs, not yea buts.. We feel oil will bottom on this day for cycle, and although it will take a few days to confirm a top, and could test 50 this week, we feel this marks the end of this last bull run of the year.
It shows during the last sine cycle, we had and average of about a two weeks decline followed by an increase/consolidation for about a week. This accelerated halfway through the cycle, and slowed as it bottomed. Sorry this chart is getting too busy.. but includes some projections based on last cycle.
Thanks for all PM & likes.. So this is what I'm calling for the next three weeks.
Please don't trade on this if you do not completely understand my timing cycles. There will be plenty of opportunity using tried and true charting options to make money both bull/bear. With multiple >5% days ahead, daytraders should stick to their methods not mine!
It is also important to note the biggest range can be the first few days.
I was very happy to see Fridays action, as i say Spooky as to timing.... But on a short term, please consider these cautions. I base this on a range of a few days, not hours or even 1 day. (the average is 2-3days). The cycle date was Oct 9th, but that feel on a Sunday. Even though it broke on Friday as expected, its not unusual for it to take a few days.. In fact likely.
We are prepared to Short more as soon as i feel break is over. We could see a spike to 52 even, as the cycle doesn't predict price, just range and timing. There is no need for me to short 51.50 on the way up, if that happens.
As I've said over and over.... These cycle transitions are violent more often than not. Be safe.
I'll feel better once we are closed under 50. Be safe..
Also we add SPXS, just FYI
This may be the heigh for year.
Ok, so big picture update... Here is what i see on the cycle. So far.. Everything remains on tract. It's looking like yesterdays selloff is holding. We are due for a 3-5% day.. I hoping for a break down obviously, not just for the short, but to also widen the cycle channel. A 3% break up will not void the cycle, but for obvious reasons i want down.
Historically, a multi day up cycle is more violent, than the down cycle within the channel, once defined. Fireworks really start under 45. Tight stops will be hunted down.. Good luck, trade safe. We are still all short and following the cycle.
Be safe... good luck.
Everything looks on track.. almost to a fault. I still expect big swings in the next few weeks, but the trend should remain down until Jan 20th' ish. Once we close in the 48.75 range will may add more shorts on violent bull snap backs. Basically sell strength on violent days.. 3-5% range days.
Remember.. last few cycles produced very high ranges as we entered this phase.
Good luck, trade safe.. we remain all shorts.
Quick update... yes we are still Short. I have updated this (intraday) this is a key level. I moved the cloned bear timeline by 5 days, as the first bear time cycle should end on a pop. That will help set future timeline productions..
be safe.. trade safe. Target remains 38 by Jan 20th.
Quick Heiken update.. we will get a SnapBack.. the first one will anchor timezones.. and it is due. Could be tomorrow? But I expect no later than Friday. Counting on clone channel more than timeline until first SnapBack.. be safe.. tight stops are dangerous right now, 3-4% range days will be more often.
"If we drop below 43 near close, we may hedge with some UWTI. But we aren't there yet in price or strategy
Here is a updated big picture.. or as my wife calls it "dangerous mind"
Some updates.. I continue to adjust bear time box right until we get our first up day, but as I say, we are due. I do worry how the election could distort the cycle, but so far I don't see any good/bad news effecting cycle.
I have also adjusted clone channel to account for increase velocity, but like the above adjusted bear time box, this will only be confirmed or defined after the first SnapBack retrace of 4-5%. .. again, due! This now puts the low target in Jan below the 38 we have be using. Because the clone channel is not confirmed.. I am not changing out target of 38. This will slow in velocity I think..
If the election is going to have an effect, then it would be after Tuesday night... so if anything, we could see people just hedging on Tuesday. Or we could see a big squeeze if it looks like Hillary will win.. in either case I don't thing a big drop is going to happen before some real up volatility happens.
Our shorts remain open.. we might hedge with some UWTI on Monday or Tuesday... depends on the price action... will update if that happens. Good luck be safe..
Okay.. lots of worry, not a lot of action.. as of now, this is what I'm thinking. Call it my safe place. Good luck .. be safe.
We just added a 25% hedge with UWTI @ 17.59. ( Oil 44.84 )
We are due for a SnapBack regardless of elections.. 25% hedge will let assume this is it. Be safe..
Today looked like a lot of stop hunting... and some dragging up by S&P.
Heiki still shows down momentum.. but much less than last few days. I saw some statistics on TV last night, chart said bear, but Analyst showed that after 6 days of down, historically oil was 3-5% higher, 5 days later... plus our chart says we are due.
Even when prepared, I always hate these snapbacks...
Okay, no changes in positions.. this bull is really good so far in the cycle. I just don't want it going to much over 46.38 fib. I would like to close the UWTI hedge around 46.5 and for oil to start the next bear timeline.
If it can get there on Friday, that would be perfect.. we need a few up days.
be safe... 47.5 is very much within norms...
I also added a date line at Nov. 25 (2017.90) this the the top of the last high in this "Economic Cycle"... if you follow Martin Armstrong's cycles. I do. You should check it out.
Lastly.... United States Marine Corps
Born 241 years ago... November 10, 1775 in a Philadelphia Tavern..
Before our first President .. and before we became the USA.
Simper Fi Leathernecks
All positions are same. Made change in bull tinezone. It still has till Friday to get it done...( avg retrace 7% over 6 days..) which is next week. Up to 46.70 would be good for my Hedges. We are in the green on our UWTI hedge, but around 46.60'ish would be a good pivot to new bear timebox.
Some trend thoughts... Did the (less than 2hr Trump Dump) change the longterm trend lines, or should it be discontented ? In one case, the trump dump low helped confirm zero Fib support, but current resistance is reacting at old (dump discounted) levels.. which one you use could make a big difference..
Still looking for a short lived bull... no change in positions. Big Short.
Updated..I don't think the Trump hump was the pullback that's due. 42.81 is Sept low res. I would like to see one more down day to under 42.50, then snapback & squeeze going into rollover & EIA. A mini "bull day" TS is due Tuesday as well. So we'll see. Good luck.
Otherwise all our shorts are still open.
Be safe, will update on trade.
Still looking for low in later Jan. (WTI 38) But I need to get back to home base and pick a new tool.. guess 3x days are gone in WTI. Too bad, those guys bought me a house. Just not sure the next bounce will be over before the delist. Trade safe.. I'll republish the Timecycle with my new shorts in a few days...
Be safe !
at least that is what it looks like. Will see soon... good luck. This weekend I will start new study on this this one is getting too long.. and it’s old.
ATM- I’m 40% short/60%cash
For the OGs. Totem pivot date Dec. 5th, (+/-24hrs). If true, we should see a Hammer on an this price spike of at least -4%. Spike could get to 58.26, but that seems like a lot to me for a 3day max timeframe. But not unreasonable. GL
Not sure I would open a new short .. but I swing, over weeks and months. On a shorter timeframe.. if this "plan" is right.. we should see a drop back to in about next week. According to plan... we will see. Not sure how holiday will effect?
And today I notice this - http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-01/goldman-warns-oil-headed-low-40-declining-probability-opec-deal