OIL - Game of ranges

TVC:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
3931 26 59
It seems we've entered into the 3rd daily cycle 5 days ago. I don't like too much oil's 3rd daily cycles.
Usually it's not too strong..
The other problem that this last DCL has broken below the previous DCL (blue line) generating a failed daily cycle.
So the most likely scenario that we bounce for 4-5 days from here and we start to move down into the ICL during the following weeks. During this bounce we might just test back the green trendline (red rectangle ) or we might test back the upper line of the range. (green rectangle )
Indicators are looking good: MACD crossed over. TSI has bullish divergence .

I'm planning to get out of this position when
1. RSI gets overbought
2. or when we tag the trendline
3, or price bounces up to the upper line of the range.
I will set the exit upon time.

LONG UPDATE - this is an update of a previous long idea I don't suggest to enter or add long positions here
Comment: If this powerful bounce continues I will definetely wait for the tag of the upper line of the range at 51.5$.
+3.3% today
Comment: I've signed the on the picture - just forgot to write in the post - the 200 SMA plays a very important role in this rally:
4th Nov - bounce from the 200 SMA
11th Nov - breaking below the 200 SMA
15th Nov - recovery above the 200 SMA
18th Nov - tag & bounce again from the 200 SMA
... and a 3 weeks high today.
Comment: I don't like Oil's price action at all. We are in 3.5$ plus since our first long entry.
I'm taking profit on half of the position. The chance is lower and lower that we can tag the top of the range. If we still bounce up to there I will be happy with the half position.
I'm also setting my stop below the 200 SMA. Notice that we again bounced today from the 200 SMA...
We are getting late in the intermediate cycle. The correction can come any time.
Comment: Closing 50% of the position at 46.90$.
Comment: Closing the other 50% today. We reached the top of the range but we shouldn't forget about the failed daily cycle...
If oil breaks out it will break out without me.

I will decide if I reenter later or not.
Trade closed: target reached
Trade closed manually
Oil is so weak now. I am thinking if nov 30 is a buy?
chartwatchers PRO playthetrend
@playthetrend, No. The next time to buy will be middle or end of January. I will try to find a good exit point from our longs now during the following 5-10 days.
+4 Reply
shawn.ctech chartwatchers
@chartwatchers, your exit should be around mid Dec.
My logic for now given cycle trend being a general up move and pending OPEC decision is to ride OIL in to next week and take profits before OPEC decision. After OPEC news wait, or get back in, accept the 2-3% miss in the rise and keep riding, otherwise, sit it out and wait for the over sell.
+4 Reply
How much do you think OPEC dream scenario will drive speculation? As US is closed Friday I am already taking profits but will let the last 45% run until early Thursday AM and take it from there. The US gamblers will hold over the weekend but the safe money will bank the profits. If there is a drastic dip on Thursday I am buying.
MrRick Staxs
@Staxs, U.S. market closed Thursday for Thanks Giving. Open on Friday
Very low volume. Be careful here, because the odds may betray you and no-one else here will save you.
MrRick MrRick
@MrRick, Oops, my error. My chart was still on December oil. Delete the low volume remark.
Are you planning to close your buy positions before the OPEC meeting? Or do you think the deal will get done and to close the positions after the meeting? Thanks
Oil now below 47.60. Could it be red scenario no. 1 beginning to play out?
Arpi, the ‘green’ scenario seems to be taken off the table as the oil went down from the trend line as you perfectly predicted. Is it truth? Or is the ‘green’ scenario still alive? I’m interested in your angle about this subject.

What do you think about the oil short in case of the ‘red’ scenario? You mentioned ICL (39.23) as possible target. To short (from 46.45 to 39.23) looks tempting very much. Any thought or/and oil update are appreciated.
Wow, oil jumped. My guess was not true. The 'green' scenario is still alive.
Arpi, also what do you think about the new gap in XBI ? The gap proved strong on Nov.23 as the green candle started from almost upper edge of the gap. Maybe we can enter XBI again?
+1 Reply
Any updates on this now that it hit the target.
Arpi, thanks for update!
Now that Credit Suisse is delisting UWTI/DWTI - does anyone have any opinions on a leveraged ETF/ETN that reasonably closely follows USOIL that has reasonable trading volume?
MartinX bertcoin
@bertcoin, No worries my friend, US Commodity Funds which runs USO filed for a United States 3x Oil Fund, so there will be an opportunity soon :-))
MartinX MartinX
@MartinX, for the time being you can use UCO (2x bull) after 8 December
@MartinX, Thx - I'll keep an eye out for that. Hopefully both a 3x bull and 3x bear.
@bertcoin, Commerzbank has for USOIL and UKOIL, I trade UKOIL -
bertcoin PRO NesakysiuVardo
@NesakysiuVardo, Thx - not easy to trade that here in the US.
It seems that WTI will go up to 59$ next week.Is it a possibility?
Josef2016 Josef2016
@Josef2016, 59$ Seems will not be this time.
Bravo! :)
Great job. Thanx.
Perfect don Apri!
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