Usually it's not too strong..
The other problem that this last DCL has broken below the previous DCL (blue line) generating a failed daily cycle.
So the most likely scenario that we bounce for 4-5 days from here and we start to move down into the ICL during the following weeks. During this bounce we might just test back the green (red ) or we might test back the upper line of the range. (green )
Indicators are looking good: crossed over. TSI has .
I'm planning to get out of this position when
1. gets overbought
2. or when we tag the
3, or price bounces up to the upper line of the range.
I will set the exit upon time.
LONG UPDATE - this is an update of a previous long idea I don't suggest to enter or add long positions here
4th Nov - bounce from the 200 SMA
11th Nov - breaking below the 200 SMA
15th Nov - recovery above the 200 SMA
18th Nov - tag & bounce again from the 200 SMA
... and a 3 weeks high today.
I'm taking profit on half of the position. The chance is lower and lower that we can tag the top of the range. If we still bounce up to there I will be happy with the half position.
I'm also setting my stop below the 200 SMA. Notice that we again bounced today from the 200 SMA...
We are getting late in the intermediate cycle. The correction can come any time.
If oil breaks out it will break out without me.
I will decide if I reenter later or not.
What do you think about the oil short in case of the ‘red’ scenario? You mentioned ICL (39.23) as possible target. To short (from 46.45 to 39.23) looks tempting very much. Any thought or/and oil update are appreciated.