chartwatchers
Long

OIL - Game of ranges

TVC:USOIL   WTI Crude Oil
3933 26 59
It seems we've entered into the 3rd daily cycle 5 days ago. I don't like too much oil's 3rd daily cycles.
Usually it's not too strong..
The other problem that this last DCL has broken below the previous DCL (blue line) generating a failed daily cycle.
So the most likely scenario that we bounce for 4-5 days from here and we start to move down into the ICL during the following weeks. During this bounce we might just test back the green trendline (red rectangle ) or we might test back the upper line of the range. (green rectangle )
Indicators are looking good: MACD crossed over. TSI has bullish divergence .

I'm planning to get out of this position when
1. RSI gets overbought
2. or when we tag the trendline
3, or price bounces up to the upper line of the range.
I will set the exit upon time.

LONG UPDATE - this is an update of a previous long idea I don't suggest to enter or add long positions here
Comment: If this powerful bounce continues I will definetely wait for the tag of the upper line of the range at 51.5$.
+3.3% today
Comment: I've signed the on the picture - just forgot to write in the post - the 200 SMA plays a very important role in this rally:
4th Nov - bounce from the 200 SMA
11th Nov - breaking below the 200 SMA
15th Nov - recovery above the 200 SMA
18th Nov - tag & bounce again from the 200 SMA
... and a 3 weeks high today.
Comment: I don't like Oil's price action at all. We are in 3.5$ plus since our first long entry.
I'm taking profit on half of the position. The chance is lower and lower that we can tag the top of the range. If we still bounce up to there I will be happy with the half position.
I'm also setting my stop below the 200 SMA. Notice that we again bounced today from the 200 SMA...
We are getting late in the intermediate cycle. The correction can come any time.
Comment:
snapshot
Comment: Closing 50% of the position at 46.90$.
Comment: Closing the other 50% today. We reached the top of the range but we shouldn't forget about the failed daily cycle...
If oil breaks out it will break out without me.

I will decide if I reenter later or not.
Trade closed: target reached
Trade closed manually
Comment:
snapshot
Perfect don Apri!
Reply
Great job. Thanx.
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Bravo! :)
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It seems that WTI will go up to 59$ next week.Is it a possibility?
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Josef2016 Josef2016
@Josef2016, 59$ Seems will not be this time.
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Now that Credit Suisse is delisting UWTI/DWTI - does anyone have any opinions on a leveraged ETF/ETN that reasonably closely follows USOIL that has reasonable trading volume?
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MartinX bertcoin
@bertcoin, No worries my friend, US Commodity Funds which runs USO filed for a United States 3x Oil Fund, so there will be an opportunity soon :-))
Reply
MartinX MartinX
@MartinX, for the time being you can use UCO (2x bull) after 8 December
Reply
@MartinX, Thx - I'll keep an eye out for that. Hopefully both a 3x bull and 3x bear.
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@bertcoin, Commerzbank has for USOIL and UKOIL, I trade UKOIL - http://en.boerse-frankfurt.de/etp/Coba-ETC-4x-Brent-Oil-Daily-Long-DE000ETC0308/ETR
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