OIL - Intermediate cycle top

FX:USOIL   CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI)
3516 34
I'm still short in oil from around 51$ with a 20% margin impact.
Time wise we should be close to the top of this intermediate cycle so I'm going to follow oil closely in a smaller time frame during the next month.
This is the time when I open my larger short position with a heavier margin impact.
We are still in the 3rd daily cycle in this intermediate cycle and we need to start our move down into the ICL.
We should not forget about the previous daily cycle low. It was a failed daily cycle : we broke below the previous DCL. As we made a higher high during the last few days I think if we start to roll over into the intermediate cycle low we will stop this decline above 39$.

This intermediate cycle was not such a big rally. We broke to new highs but traders were watching the news too closely. Will OPEC have or not have a deal?! If there is a deal will they cut or not..
Now they have the deal and everybody is waiting for the effect of the cut. So I think while we are waiting a few big players will start to get rid of their long positions.
So the OPEC deal was enough for a breakout but that's it.

Also stocks are seem to be topping. If stock market is topping and heading to the DCL or ICL oil will fall also.
I hope you remember : at the end of the intermediate decline we will have a panic selling. And we want to be short in that panic selling...

Indicators & divergencies
RSI divergence (blue lines)
MACD divergence (purple lines)

Notice the decreasing volume of the breakout.

The bottom could be between 42.5 and 39$. 42.5$ is a strong resistance I wonder if we can break below it or not.

-ADDING TO SHORT POSITIONS- up to 40-45% margin impact.

Comment: Here we go.
A key reversal is forming after the failed breakout.
Comment: Position in profit.
Comment: I couldn't update oil yesterday but I suggest anyone who is still long to get rid of the long position. We had the bounce in the morning and we are heading lower.
My forcast for oil for the first 2 quarter of 2017 is that we will rally to 60-68 area first. And then we will correct a bit before we rally on for anther leg up.
Where is good entry here? On a pullback?
Wow - nice pin bar and fast move. Nice call and I'm back in the green.
+1 Reply
Good Job Arpi :)
Sir the current up trend is only weakened but not break YET! be careful about shorts!
keefer0 ewtrder
@ewtrder, did you miss the move then? there are other ways for confirmation of a move
ewtrder keefer0
@keefer0, i told guys we are on the e leg in another thread. I awear the little correction is under way!
ewtrder keefer0
@keefer0, do i have to stress again! Anything could happen. There are lots of choices! We could form a bigger rally without correct much. Remember flat hehe .. Sounds familiar?! That is one of the choices!
ewtrder keefer0
@keefer0, another possibility! We could still in a 3 or c rally, right?! We will find out hehe
ewtrder keefer0
@keefer0, we could still in an extended 3 rally on daily view manner not the hourly or smaller! A slow brewing 3 rally!
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