Brief History -3 yr
1. June High
2. Oct. Break
3. Aug big short squeeze at low. (Last 2 yrs)
4. Return to trend.
5. 1st Quarter low
Big waves... Be safe. We remain short.
Is it a week, month, year or decade... ?
Let's look at a year... in that case, oil has been below this price about 70% of the time.
As a percentage from here, it has averaged about +7% higher when above this price. When below this price it has averaged -20%.
In the last year oil has been +23% higher than this price. It has been -40% below this level.
We see little chance of oil breaking through these 1, 2, & 3 year trend lines. Oil continues to fail at any significant up channel, and i don't see current inventories or production changing that.... Be safe.
We are now max short!
Just an update to long running chart.. history may not repeat.. but it rhymes..