History of WTI. Warning - October is Huricane Season!

Warning...October is Huricane Season!

Brief History -3 yr
1. June High
2. Oct. Break
3. Aug big short squeeze at low. (Last 2 yrs)
4. Return to trend.
5. 1st Quarter low

Comment:

Its hurricane season and we are in the Bermuda Triangle... Be safe.

Comment:

Updated storm chart. We are at a very risky place. If we break below 42, i would think SA may comment and prop up market. This is okay... and was warned, as long as you can take the ride.... Watch the bottom green trend, if it hugs that, we will see some strength as we go into OPEC meeting. But if it breaks lower than that long term trend... It could get ugly and make it harder to get to 38 by october.

Big waves... Be safe. We remain short.

Comment:

So my wife asks, Is oil normally higher or lower than Friday's price. Hmm.. what is normal?
Is it a week, month, year or decade... ?
Let's look at a year... in that case, oil has been below this price about 70% of the time.

As a percentage from here, it has averaged about +7% higher when above this price. When below this price it has averaged -20%.
In the last year oil has been +23% higher than this price. It has been -40% below this level.

Trade active:

Well we didn't plan on trading today, but we miss the last two times it hit this level and have been wanting another bite above 46 . We were a little sloppy entering the trade, but we have added a big short at 46.10.

We see little chance of oil breaking through these 1, 2, & 3 year trend lines. Oil continues to fail at any significant up channel, and i don't see current inventories or production changing that.... Be safe.

We are now max short!

Trade active:

Please follow this trade on the Top of the Wave idea. We are consolidating to one published idea to keep update. We remain max short but plan on going 150% short this week. This opportunity only comes once per cycle. This will be violent at times with several 5% range days.

Be safe!

Comment:

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Just an update to long running chart.. history may not repeat.. but it rhymes..

Comment:

Update.. all good on seasonal history.. adding shorts on all bounces nest few days. On first pullback from 3min spikes, I short with a .10 sl, and .25 tp. Then trailing stop. My goal in not to make coin with .25 scalps.. my goal is to be short when autumn fall starts. The first $2.00 Fall can be fast.. until then scalping longs/shorts but holding peak shorts that are working. GL. Not unusual to see big % moves down once started.