Trendhopper
Long

USOIL - One Way or Another....Bat or Butterfly

TVC:USOIL   WTI Crude Oil
Im still favouring the Butterfly to 58-59 as its supported by an Elliotwave sequence, Crucial area is the blue line....if price closes below the blue line, Elliotwave sequence is invalidated and bat takes control... expecting an upward move in next few days, possiblty today if 44             .50 holds....
Comment:
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We are right on the line.....should ping up tomorrow after NFP data...4hr RSI is 18 !!!! so oversold end of 3 wave impulse pattern...should at the very least retest 46.50
Comment:
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We have 2 potential outcomes from here......

Reversal at 43.03....watch price action...wait for a bottom formation.. nest to wait till after NFP data tomorrow 1.30 GMT to see which direction and go with the trend....

or

long at 42.03....completion of a bat pattern.. for TP 44.50...put stop loss a few tics under the x (the higher X on the chart)
Comment: We closed right on the line in the sand at 43.50...so the 5 wave pattern is still valid up to 59.00......

Because of the .618 retracement, Ive re-jigged the wave count...what looked like wave 1 was just a pullback...so we have just seen the retracement of wave 2....this makes sense because

1. usually wave 2 is a 50-61.8 retracement
2. wave 2 and 4 dont usually retrace the same...wave 4 should retrace 38.2 if wave 2 retraced 61.8
3. the waves should be of similar length , with wave 1 shortest....

Its the same result...we get to 59 wiith butterfly but it gives us pivot points to take some profit and add to the trade to minimise risk....
Comment:
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Comment: REGARDING NFP

The charts are saying the job numbers are going to be weaker than expected, however I will hedge my positions against the worst case scenario.


I will be entering 2 long positions on oil and Gold about 1.25pm GMT and 1 short position as insurance.....

I have 3 short positions open on USDCAD...I will be entering a long position at the same time as insurance.....

If you have a trading account that allows you to take half profit then you do not need multiple positions...(I keep meaning to change mine to one that does)

After 1.30pm there should be fireworks and we end the day with a big green candle !
Comment: Blue line I was just referring to was another blue line at 43.50 support....not the one on here...confusing I know...
Trade active: We have just broken out of a channel so I've gone long at 43.73..quite a long stop loss to allow for possible volatility after NFP....
Comment: I closed my long from 46.20 with a small profit....

My other long positions are still running from 43/44......
Comment:
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Bearish Bat Pattern only valid .if price doesn't go below point A.....

So short on completion of bat at 46.37...
SL 46.52
TP 1 45.15
TP 2. 44.50
TP 3 ...let position run....

NOTE ...price may reverse at 46.05 you can trade a short here to around 45.60 or just ....ignore this move and wait for completion of the bat
Comment: depending on price action

i will buy 45.15....

SL 45.05
TP 45.95
Trade closed: stop reached: it looks like it want to retest 44.50 which is major support....so I'm leaving it alone for now
Comment: We are potentially in wave 2 (corrective wave), of wave 3 (impulse wave), of wave 5 (impulse wave) in a 5 wave move (making sense?)....wave 2 shoudnt 'close below 44.32...if it does the elliotwave and butterfly option is off the table,.....I will close my longs while still in profit...and will be looking for a shorting opportunity...
Comment:
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If bulls win...it will be via a short squeeze in my view...the support trendline will be key...

and a good shorting opportunity on 0.618 retrace
Comment: Bearflag and trendline breakout

Dont be surprised to see a quick dive to 44.60 and a rapid rise back up again...

snapshot
Comment: We hve broken the support trendline...

My view is still bullish on oil, with a 61.8 retracement its usually great news to at least test the last high of 48.95 but sometimes it can form a Gartley in the opposite direction and we have to accept the fact that the bears will be looking at this potential....with a buy at 42.79...

My plan is the same 44,32 is the .618 retracement from 43.02 - 46.5....if we drop below 44.32 it tells me bears are on top....so I will be cashing in around 42.15 area based on price action.....and looking for the 42.79 buy opportunity...
Comment:
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Comment: CORRECTION 44.15 cash in
Comment: Heres the potential bullish gartley with the X in the right place!

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Comment:
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FINALLY!

this is a pot bullish gartley with the correct 0.786 final leg ...

BUY ENTRY IS 41.79!!!!!
Comment: CORRECTION BUY IS 41.27......

I cna do the complicated bit!!!
Comment: Ive closed all longs except one....

Next obvious reversal area is 43.75.......786 fib and 1.618 extension on this downward AB=CD pattern....

If we reverse here then a bounce to at least 44.32 is on.....and its not completely out of the question we still get our butterfly to (59)...but i feel its unlikely now, but will keep my long in case...
Comment: Looking like a double bottom if it doesn't take off, in which case I will buy at 43.75....
Comment: I have cashed in on my long with profit at 44.60..so I have no positions in oil right now.

Inventory data out tomorrow at 3.30pm...I will watch and then buy/sell with trend.
Comment:
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I will trade the BREAKOUT...of this assymetrical triangle pattern
Comment: The oil inventory data is usually Wednesdays at 3.30pm....for whatever reason they moved it to tomorrow at 4pm.....!!!!

looks like continued consolidation until then...so will trade breakout tomorrow at 4pm.....
Comment:
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Nice BULLISH crab pattern forming...providing we dont break above point c then buy at 45.14...should go to at least 45.30 resistance....may be a trend changer....
Thank you, trendhopper! We appreciate it!
Reply
I had expected the move to take longer... I'm in UWTI and hope that prices remain up
Reply
Trendhopper Parabolica
I think we may have a correction back down to 44.50 area...this is key support for us bulls....I will monitor price action from here, there could be a nice short opportunity coming up..

IM keeping those longs as I think its just a pullback after such a dramatic and quick rise...
+1 Reply
Trendhopper Parabolica
Im watching USDCAD which mirrors oil in other direction....


THE USDCAD chart is easier to make sense of...its in an ABC correction...just completed wave A....wave B should take it up to 1.305 -1.31 area.....this tells me oil will test 44.50....at least this is likely.....but first it will try a double top and fail to go higher (this is my view)

45.15 is key buying area in this impulse so I will buy at 45.15 and sell at 45.95.....for wave down to 44.50

or

sell at 46.50 if price goes up from here
+1 Reply
Metastock79 Trendhopper
Hi,
and where are you gonna put your stop??
regards
Meta
Reply
Trendhopper Metastock79
snapshot


Here is a closer look, its all in the detail..

I will only short at 46.45 or lower ..if it goes above 46.45 then its neutral/bullish and reversal to 44.50 won't happen in my view.....so we just leave it alone...the SL is tight 46.50/46.55
Reply
Trendhopper Parabolica
snapshot


Support trendine has worked.....we should now retest 46.50.....if 2nd top doesn't close above 46.5 i will open short to 44.50....and another short to run lower (just in case the bulls win)...keeping longs open...
+1 Reply
Trendhopper Trendhopper
I mean the bears!!!
+1 Reply
wave 4 cannot brake the maximum of wave 1..if it happens wave 4 is an extension of wave 3!!
Reply
Trendhopper MarcusTrader7
Absolutely right....and usually wave 4 gets very close to the top of wave 1.....before reversing into 5...the difficulty with wave counts is you don't see the full picture until after the event...which makes trading the ABC correction the easier bit
Reply
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