Well I was about 2 weeks early but the drop in oil has stopped (so far) above the previous long term low I labeled AA on the weekly long term chart of 2 weeks ago.(see link). What I thought was the bottom of the current drop turned out to be a classic 5 wave expanding triangle. I find expanding triangles often tough to recognize early as the previous highs and lows keep getting exceeded. If you are longer term bearish on oil then you may see this recent rise as just part of a dead cat bounce. But I favor a longer term bullish stance. BUT in the short term we have a strong negative reversal in the daily RSI and a potential bearish divergence in the 2 hour RSI. I would not be surprised to see one more jump up to the upper trend line of the channel I have drawn then would expect an a-b-c retesting of the recent low. If this happens it could provide a potential low risk entry to go long oil. It is worth watching. Take care. Have a fantastic weekend. Goodguy.
