As discussed in the KHL chatroom, it is likely that oil has bottomed here, considering the sentiment extreme and the situation in Saudi Arabia, with Mohammed Bin Salman appointed as the next in line for the throne, replacing his uncle: bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-21/saudi-arabia-names-mohammed-bin-salman-as-crown-prince-j46gx3nq This is an interesting signal in its own right, maybe signaling a bottom, which Tim West pointed out as logical. Sentiment is very negative, with analysts claiming oil is basically a 'worthless commodity'...do your own due diligence.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
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Excellent action here:
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Looks good.
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Excellent so far...but, USOIL has 2 more days to hit 47.80 or it might slow down, and maybe retrace for a while Resistance at 47.41-47.54
It was a bottom there...I cut my long in half after adding on the recent lows a day ago. The trendline break brough in technical buyers, but if we don't hit 47+- today, there's a chance to go back to support at 45.30. The market probably won't breakout sharply before July 24th. -OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting date-
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The rally continues:
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This idea has so few likes...shame on my followers haha.
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jk
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seriously...
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USOIL very close to target #1, considering sentiment, I am cautious here, we could short it against our equity holdings if needed
@faylee, thanks :p
I see you're long with good risk reward, great.
smitheric1970
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Great work as always sir! I am also closely watching the 45.9 level that you have marked. 45.60 is a major weekly inflection from 2009 and also a weekly demand level on the August contract that was crossed below. I am currently looking for heavy selling in the 45.4-45.6 zone but a high volume break above 45.9 would definitely nullify that. Great work and good trading to you!
smitheric1970
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@smitheric1970, Prices have fallen into the 38.01-45.60 2009 grandparent?? leg, Lol, there are a couple of levels in red added from the 2015 parent leg down. If prices cannot break the 46 level I may look down 41.38/40.29/38.01 inflections.
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RyanVarghese
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Well, I agree with you... Oil might have bottomed here.. Also, if you look at Venezuela, they are decreasing production by 30,000 bpd which may push up to a million in a year and if tonight rig count gives a confirmation of decrease in stock piles and drawdown, then we may see some swing in oil towards north.
IvanLabrie
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@RyanVarghese, good additional points. A friend was looking at oil tankers' activity as well. Definitely an interesting trade.
Consider this '5-wave' decline too, really extreme and washed out sentiment:
QJames
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@RyanVarghese, Venezuela is chaotic now, looks like a coup may be unfolding, this won't help their oil output, or international risk sentiment
Nidalas
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Glorious call my friend, too bad I am not trading these. I would also advise taking profits, as the wave count is clearly showing more short term up, but this seems like a very high risk exposure as a steep correction is not far.