chartwatchers
Long

OIL - Not a topping pattern yet

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
3834 24 55
We are in a triangle , tagging the lower trendline today.. Everybody is ready to short oil             and this selling power had pushed oil             price down to the bottom of the triangle in one day.
But we couldn't break the the support at 45.6$. I think tomorrow we will start to head up again and this time we will break the triangle's upper trendline .

This is not a topping pattern. This looks like a consolidation triangle to me. It's too simple to fall from here. The bull needs to kick hard the bears one more time before a strong decline.
Oil             still could rally 2-3 weeks and that would be enough to tag 55-60$ before the intermediate decline.

I believe this is a low risk buy now. If you go long here you could set your stop below 45.40$.
I'M also buying oil             in the energy trade.
Comment: I think the patry is starting.
This time we will break up from the triangle.
snapshot
Comment: Don't forget to use the stops here...
snapshot
Comment: I don't like this price action...
I am in already , long on oil. What do you think, why we declined that much today, it looked to me like nobody was buying. Thank you.
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andrej123456 andrej123456
Today 175 Saudi citizens killed, we can guess why: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-column-russell-crude-saudi-idUSKCN0ZG0E1?feedType=RSS&feedName=GCA-Commodities&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
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s.mcgrath andrej123456
A weaker British Pound = a stronger US Dollar = weaker oil prices - plus concerns over global (primarily Asian) demand... Oh, and don't forget the Genscape build in Cushing inventories. JMHO
+1 Reply
nice chart, could you also explain why you think it's a low-risk buy? considering the season effect and api data tomorrow, I think there is a lot of uncertainty here
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Because you can use a tight stop.
+1 Reply
Are you concerned about stock bearish cross and RSI curled down and MACD slight kink down?
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if 45.80 breaks go into 43?
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We will break the upper triangle! Totally agree! and it ought to be furious! there is so much "FUEL" in those stops!!!
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it start :)
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Looks like a nice fast ride!!
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Nice call chartwatchers,,,i'm full of oil,,,if the stocks helps,,,,,this time we kicks the shorts
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descending triangle  wave (B)
+2 Reply
thinks for this clarification Cruddest :)
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I believe the bottom is in
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O_O at the API stock
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I'm following this, thanks for your wonderful chart
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U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum
Reserve) decreased by 2.2 million barrels from the previous week. At 524.4 million
barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at historically high levels for this time of year.
Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 0.1 million barrels last week, but are well
above the upper limit of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories decreased while
blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories
decreased by 1.6 million barrels last week but are well above the upper limit of the
average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories rose 2.7 million
barrels last week and are near the upper limit of the average range. Total commercial
petroleum inventories increased by 3.4 million barrels last week.
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me neither.
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Hey, What is this ? Why such strong decline with quite normal results from EIA, today. What do you think ?
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Just look at oil price as weapon in economical wars and political pressure. Around $50 is top for oil in current geo-political environment. If it goes higher - not for long time. I think it is very safe to short around $50 or any price above. At $50 most producers feel OK. To do more harm it actually must deep to $30th pretty soon. Oil will be low until spring 2018 - Russia re-election :).
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andrej123456 pbartashevich
Of course you are right, it is a weapon since it gone down from 60USD resistance. But if USA is going to do it until 2018 as you think, on the other side it can be a lot of time for petro dollar to really collapse, because low oil price arent bad just for Russia. or they will just stop production/exports and the price will climb. I dont belevie we will go back to 30th this time, Saudis dont want to co-operate, but we will see.
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pbartashevich PRO andrej123456
All US companies hedged their production and will survive. Shoot, reload with hedges, shoot again. US dollar is not petro and not going to collapse until countries will start trading in other currencies. US actually will enjoy low oil prices and buy from Saudis. The stakes here are much bigger than US oil production companies. Saudis will always co-operate with US. They have no choice - too dependent on them in the region. There will be a big battle for market share. So far all oil producing countries just pumped more despite of price decline. It will last long time. Plus, no economic grows in the world - less demand.

We had nice correction in Bear market now oil will deep to paint second shoulder around $38ish at least or revisit lows. I don't see a bullish story here, maybe only very short term. Like Canadian fire or Nigeria rebels (media shut up about it - bearish sign :).
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andrej123456 pbartashevich
Hmm... I bought 200 ERY ETF yesterday, so today I will have some profit. So you think the reason that the US have so big OIL oversupply is because they bought it from Saudis for low prices (and still doing that) ?? - It is quite possible in my view. But you can check this article, Iwouldnt be so sure with US-Saudi cooperation longer-term. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-column-russell-crude-saudi-idUSKCN0ZG0E1?feedType=RSS&feedName=GCA-Commodities&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter + a couple of days after the bombing terrorist attack in Saudi Arabia. Economic growth is linked to oil prices, I think, low oil prices = very low/ none economic growth = less demand. After yesterday I agree with you two, we can go back to 38 I think. But there was quite strong bull´s rally from 28 to 51 . I have a dilemma now, whether to hold The 200 ERY ETF I bought yesterday or just sell them today after NYSE will open. :)
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Chartwatchers - what's your thoughts now, that was quite a sell-off after EIA?
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